🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2026 US Midterms, 34 Senate seats are contested; Republicans must defend 20, Democrats 14. The historical pattern shows the president's party loses an average of 6 Senate seats in second-term midterms. Trump (second term, in office since January 2025) faces this structural headwind. Polymarket (September 7, 2026) shows a 'Democratic lead in generic ballots and key races'; specific Senate data are not quantified. Structurally, Democrats sit at 47 seats, 3 short of majority — flipping 3 is plausible but uncertain. The existing open prediction covers Democrats in the House; the Senate majority is an independent, additional event.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All 435 US House seats are contested on November 3, 2026. Polymarket assigns Democrats an 88% win probability for the House; Silver Bulletin and Race to the WH concur. Structural factors favour the opposition: the president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms historically; Trump's approval sits in the high 30s per aggregated polls. The generic congressional ballot shows Democrats at D+6–7 points. With Republicans currently holding 220+ seats, Democrats need to net approximately 8–10 seats – well within historical norms. Polymarket sees 88% for Democrats in the House.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All 435 House seats are up for election on November 3, 2026. Historically, the sitting president's party (Republicans, Trump in year 2) loses an average of 25–30 House seats in the first midterm. The Republican House majority post-2024 is slim at ~5–10 seats; a net loss of 5–10 seats would flip the chamber. Polling aggregates (FiveThirtyEight/Metaculus, August 2026) give Democrats ~52–55% odds. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for the House directly verified. Consistent with the open prediction that Republicans retain the Senate – a different chamber with different competitive dynamics.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats as slight favourites for Senate control (~51% as of early September 2026) — for the first time leading in this cycle. The probability rose ~11 points recently following US military involvement in Iran. Of 35 seats up, Republicans hold 23; Democrats need a net gain of 4. Generic congressional ballot (August 2026): Democrats +8. This prediction is consistent with the open 'Democratic Sweep' and House majority predictions.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a Democratic House victory at 88% (as of approx. 04.09.2026, market volume >$11M). Historical patterns favour the opposition in midterms; Trump's Republicans face a ~6-point Democratic generic ballot advantage. The House is considered a much more likely chamber flip than the Senate (Polymarket Senate: 51% for Democrats). This prediction addresses only the House, not the Senate (no overlap with the existing 'Sweep' entry). Own estimate: 85%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices the Democratic sweep (both chambers simultaneously) at approximately 51%. Silver Bulletin separately estimates 87% probability for the House and 57% for the Senate. The joint occurrence of both events sits at 51% per prediction markets. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by approximately 6–7 points and are ahead in key Senate races including Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Main risk: historical tendency to overestimate the incumbent president's party in midterm cycles. Polymarket says 51%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026?' shows a near-dead-heat: Democrats 51%, Republicans ~50% (as of September 2, 2026). GOP defends 22 of its current 53 seats; Democrats need net +4 seats from six genuine tossups (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada). Historically midterms hurt the governing party, but the GOP's 53-seat starting position provides a buffer. Polycopy: 'Divided Government with Republican Senate' as second most probable scenario (35.5%). Note: Complementary to open prediction 'Democrats win House'.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Kalshi prices Democrats at ~51% for Senate majority (September 2026), Polymarket at ~52% — a genuine toss-up. Republicans must defend 26 Senate seats (vs. 9 Democrats); historical midterm headwinds for the governing party favor Democrats. Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa to 'toss-up' on August 20, 2026 (total: 7 toss-up seats including Georgia/Ossoff, Pennsylvania/McCormick seat, Wisconsin/Johnson). In the House, Democrats lead clearly (~85%, separate open prediction), but the Senate map is structurally more favorable for Republicans.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Historically, the incumbent president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms (Congressional Research Service); in 18 of 21 midterms since 1934, the governing party lost seats. The ongoing US-Iran military conflict (confirmed NPR, Al Jazeera, September 2026) and economic tensions are likely to generate discontent against the governing party. The existing open Cassandra forecast covers only the Senate (GOP holds majority); the House is uncovered. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical base rate (~65% of midterms result in House flip against governing party) weighed against current political headwinds: ~40%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket shows 88% for a Democratic House majority (as of 9.9.2026, ~$10M volume). The national generic ballot shows Democrats leading by ~6-7 points (FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin). President Trump's approval sits at ~42%. Historically, the opposition party gains 25-35 House seats in midterms; Republicans hold a current majority of just ~10 seats. Slight discount from Polymarket's 88% applied for potential 2022-style polling errors.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 'Democratic Sweep' (Democrats control both chambers) at 52% probability (as of September 9, 2026, $11M trading volume). Since a Democratic Senate gain only occurs in the sweep scenario per Polymarket's model, this implies Senate majority probability of ~52%. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) sees the Senate at 50:50. Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held seats; Republicans defend 22 of 35 seats on the ballot, including Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, where recent polls show Democrats in reach. President Trump's ~38% approval and economic conditions favor an elevated midterm counter-vote.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket implies 88.5% probability of Democrats winning the House in 2026. Historically, the governing party loses ~26 House seats; the current slim Republican majority (~217–212) means a net swing of 5–7 seats flips control. Generic ballot shows Democrats ahead by 4–6 points. Risks: Republican gerrymandering (Texas, Florida, Georgia), high incumbency retention, Trump base turnout. Market anchor at 88.5% is the primary calibration; deviation would require a marked economic upswing and rising Trump approval.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices as of August 27, 2026 an 88% probability for Democrats in the US House race (Midterms, November 3, 2026). Metaculus sees 86.5%. Generic congressional ballot: Democrats with +5-7 point national lead. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats in midterms; with Trump (Republican) in the White House, structural forces are clearly against the GOP. This prediction does not contradict the existing open prediction that Republicans retain the Senate – Polymarket views a divided Congress (R Senate/D House) as the most likely scenario (39% in the Balance of Power market). Minimal deviation from Polymarket anchor (88%) for remaining uncertainty over candidate quality and local races.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket shows Republicans at 58%, Kalshi at ~67% probability for retaining the Senate majority; weighted average: ~62%. Structural advantages: Republicans currently hold 53 of 100 Senate seats and only need to defend 22 of their 35 seats up for election, while Democrats would need a net gain of 4 seats. More Democrat-held seats in swing states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania) are at risk. Metaculus sees split Congress (R-Senate + D-House) as the most likely single scenario (49%). This prediction is compatible with the open prediction 'Democrats win the House.'
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices Democrats winning the House at 89% (as of August 29, 2026). The generic congressional ballot shows Democrats +6–7 points in the RCP aggregate (August 2026). Republicans hold a razor-thin ~218-seat majority; Democrats need a net gain of just ~3 districts. President Trump's approval sits in the high 30s — classic wave-election conditions for the opposition. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) also models Democrats as House favourites. The Senate, by contrast, is nearly tied (Polymarket: Democrats 51%, Republicans 49%).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Kalshi prediction market: Democratic Senate majority at 46.5 cents, implying ~53.5% probability of Republican control. Polymarket (August 26, 2026): 'D Sweep' 48%, 'R Senate + D House' 39%, 'R Sweep' 12% – implying ~51% probability of Republican Senate combined. The Senate map heavily favors Republicans: 22 Republican vs. 13 Democratic seats are up for election; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats while defending exposed seats (Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire). 2026 special elections show ~+10pp Democratic swing vs. 2024, likely insufficient for the Senate. We estimate 58%, slightly above the Kalshi market.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices Democrats at 89.5% to win the House majority (late August 2026). Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterms; with Donald Trump in the White House since January 2025, this structural headwind is particularly strong. Democrats need only a net gain of 3–5 seats; the generic ballot shows +4–7 points in their favour. Balance-of-Power scenarios: 51% Democratic Sweep, 36% R-Senate/D-House, 12% R-Sweep. Own calibration at 88% — slightly below Polymarket to price in low-probability reversal scenarios.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Metaculus forecasts 59% probability for a Republican Senate majority in 2026. Democrats are simultaneously 86.5% favorites for the House (in existing Cassandra forecasts). The 2026 Senate map has several competitive seats in historically red states, giving Republicans a structural edge. Generic ballot shows Democrats +8 (Polymarket), but Senate maps rarely move 1:1 with national sentiment.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket shows for the 2026 Midterms (c. August 2026): Democrats sweep both chambers 50%, Republican Senate + Democratic House 34%, Republican sweep 12%, other 4%. This implies a Democratic Senate victory probability of approximately 54%. Kalshi shows Democrats at ~55% for Senate control (August 2026). Cook Political Report identifies five toss-up Senate seats (PA, WI, AZ, NV, GA), all slightly Democratic-leaning in the latest polls. The existing Cassandra forecast covers the House; this prediction covers the Senate as a separate resolution.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a Democratic House majority at 88% (>$9.7M traded, as of August 24, 2026). Historical patterns are clear: the president's party loses an average of 26 seats in midterms; Democrats need only ~20 seats to flip the majority. Given the financial and political costs of the Iran war, persistent inflation, and Trump's structural approval challenges, historical headwinds are strong. Polymarket anchor: 88%; own estimate: 85%.