Democrats win the majority in the US Senate at the 2026 midterm elections (3 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi markets show Democrats and Republicans at approximately 51%/49% for Senate control — effectively a coin flip (as of approx. July 2026). The seat map is marginally favorable to Democrats: more Republican-held seats in competitive swing states are up for defense. Polymarket and Metaculus place Democrats at 78–84% for the House (a separate open prediction), implying a national wave in their direction — such momentum would have spillover effects in close Senate races. Senate and House outcomes are independent.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Senate Control 2026: Demokraten ~51 %, Republikaner ~49 % (Stand Juli 2026)
- Kalshi / Polymarket House Control 2026: Demokraten 84 % (Stand Juli 2026)
- Metaculus US 2026 Midterms: Demokraten 78 % Pluralität im Repräsentantenhaus (Stand Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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✦ AI
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