🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Democratic Party wins majority in the US Senate at the 2026 Midterm Elections (at least 51 seats, Election Day November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. October 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

Kalshi projects a full Democratic congressional sweep at 64%; Democratic House + Republican Senate at 28%. Implied P(Democratic Senate) ≈ 64% ÷ 92% (Polymarket House) ≈ 70%. Polymarket sees 92.5% for Democrats winning House majority. Kalshi's model projects net seat gains in Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), and through favorable shifts in Nevada and Arizona. Democrats need a net 2–3 seat gain. Polymarket shows $1.99M in 24-hour House-contract volume — deeply liquid, well-calibrated market. Main risk: upset results in individual Senate races (Texas, Montana, Florida) could reverse the swing.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: Demokratischer Kongresssweep 64%, Haus + Rep. Senat 28% (Stand 29.10.2026)
Polymarket: Demokratische Mehrheit US-Repräsentantenhaus 92,5% (Stand 29.10.2026)
CNBC: Prediction Markets prognostizieren demokratischen Kongresssweep (27.10.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Die Demokraten gewannen bei den Midterm-Wahlen am 3. November 2026 die Senatsmehrheit mit 54 Sitzen (gegenüber 44 für die Republikaner) – deutlich über der geforderten Mindestmarke von 51 Sitzen. Sie flippten insgesamt 7 Sitze, darunter historische Upset-Siege in Texas (James Talarico), Kansas (Adam Hamilton), North Carolina (Roy Cooper), South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa und Maine. NBC News bestätigte die demokratische Senatsmehrheit noch am Wahlabend bzw. bis zum 4. November 2026. Alle Kernbedingungen der Vorhersage (≥51 Sitze, Wahltag 3. November 2026, Bestätigung durch NBC News bis 4. November 2026) sind erfüllt. Quellen: NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/senate-results), CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/senate-election-results-2026/), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/democrats-2026-midterm-election-results.html).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026