🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Roy Cooper (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in North Carolina against Michael Whatley (Republican) — US midterm elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 31. October 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

95%

Polymarket puts Cooper at 97%, Kalshi likewise 97%. The former two-term governor of North Carolina runs for the open Senate seat following Thom Tillis's (R) retirement. Polling average October 2026: Cooper leads +8 to +14 points over Whatley. Polymarket and Kalshi briefly diverged (Polymarket 73% in January) but converged to ~97% by October. Markets treat this seat as near-certainly Democratic.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 97 % Roy Cooper (Stand 31. Oktober 2026, polymarkettrader.com / polyinsider.io)
Kalshi: 97 % Roy Cooper (Stand 31. Oktober 2026)
Polling-Durchschnitt: Cooper +8 bis +14 Punkte vor Whatley (Oktober 2026, Yahoo News / The Center Square)
Prediction News: 'Polymarket und Kalshi divergieren scharf bei Cooper-Quoten' (Oktober 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Roy Cooper (D) besiegte Michael Whatley (R) im NC-Senatssitz 2026 klar. Die AP rief das Ergebnis bereits am 3. November 2026 um 20:23 Uhr aus, NBC News bestätigte ebenfalls. Cooper erhielt laut NBC/CBS rund 58–67 % der Stimmen gegenüber Whatley mit ca. 31–39 %, was den prognostizierten klaren demokratischen Sieg bestätigt. Es war der erste demokratische Senatsgewinn in NC seit 2008. Quelle: AP via WBTV (https://www.wbtv.com/2026/11/04/roy-cooper-wins-2026-us-senate-race-north-carolina-ap-projects/), NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/roy-cooper-north-carolina-senate-election-win-democrats-rcna603330).

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