The Democratic Party (USA) wins the majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (November 3, 2026) and nominates the Speaker
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket (as of July 14, 2026) gives Democrats an 85% chance of winning the House. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 5–6 points (June 2026). Historically, the incumbent's party loses ~25 House seats in midterms; Republicans hold ~220 seats, so a loss of 3–4 seats flips the majority. Headwinds for Republicans: PPI +6.2% YoY, Hormuz crisis, weak consumer sentiment. Risk: gerrymandering, possible economic recovery by November. Senate race is separate (Polymarket: 55% Republicans retain Senate).
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 = 85 % (Stand 14.07.2026)
- TradeTheOutcome / Polycopy: Democrats 85 % House majority, Generic Ballot D +5–6 Punkte (Juli 2026)
- BLS: US PPI Juni 2026 +6,2 % YoY – Inflationsdruck belastet Trumps Zustimmung (15.07.2026)
- Real Clear Politics: Aktuelle Sitzverteilung Repräsentantenhaus R: ~220 / D: ~215 (16.07.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.