🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

52%

Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House (~220 to ~215 seats, 119th Congress). The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025, passed 218-214) contains deeply controversial Medicaid cuts and food assistance reductions — a classic opposition mobilization issue. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 25–30 House seats in midterms (six of the last eight midterms). With only a 5-seat majority, losing just 3 seats flips the chamber. Dampening factors: Republican gerrymandering, incumbency advantages. Note: this prediction refers to the House; Republican Senate majority is captured as a separate existing open prediction. No Polymarket signal for the House specifically available.

Data basis for this prediction

One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Abstimmung 218:214, 03.07.2025 (GovTrack, Wikipedia)
NBC News: 'Senate Republicans narrowly pass Trump megabill' – Medicaid-Kürzungen als Mobilisierungsthema
Historischer Midterms-Durchschnitt: Präsidentspartei verliert ~25–30 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus
119. Kongress Sitzverteilung: Republikaner ~220, Demokraten ~215 (Ballotpedia, Stand 2025)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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