Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives and install the Speaker at the November 3, 2026 midterm elections
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket assigns 83–84% probability to a Democratic House majority (as of June/July 2026, active market). Historically, the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats in midterms (Roll Call analysis); the current Republican majority is only ~5 seats (c. 220–215). 270toWin and RaceToWH identify 40+ competitive districts, predominantly suburban. Democrats hold a 5–6 point generic ballot lead (as of June 2026). Dampening factors: gerrymandering, high GOP rural turnout, Iran crisis could briefly trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect. Calibration anchored to Polymarket 83% with a small discount for remaining 4-month uncertainty: 81%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Which party will win the House in 2026?': Demokraten 83–84% (Stand Juli 2026)
- 270toWin House 2026: 40+ competitive districts (Stand Juli 2026)
- Race to WH House-Forecast 2026: Demokraten favorisiert (Stand Juli 2026)
- Historisch: Präsidentenpartei verliert Ø 28 House-Sitze bei Midterms (Roll Call)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.