Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives and install the Speaker at the November 3, 2026 midterm elections
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket assigns 83–84% probability to a Democratic House majority (as of June/July 2026, active market). Historically, the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats in midterms (Roll Call analysis); the current Republican majority is only ~5 seats (c. 220–215). 270toWin and RaceToWH identify 40+ competitive districts, predominantly suburban. Democrats hold a 5–6 point generic ballot lead (as of June 2026). Dampening factors: gerrymandering, high GOP rural turnout, Iran crisis could briefly trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect. Calibration anchored to Polymarket 83% with a small discount for remaining 4-month uncertainty: 81%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Which party will win the House in 2026?': Demokraten 83–84% (Stand Juli 2026)
- 270toWin House 2026: 40+ competitive districts (Stand Juli 2026)
- Race to WH House-Forecast 2026: Demokraten favorisiert (Stand Juli 2026)
- Historisch: Präsidentenpartei verliert Ø 28 House-Sitze bei Midterms (Roll Call)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.