The Democratic Party (USA) wins the majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
·
Predicted for 3. November 2026
·
Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket assigns 83% probability to Democratic control of the House as of July 12, 2026. The Democratic generic ballot lead stands at 5–6 points in June 2026 polls, consistent with historical midterm patterns under Republican presidents. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 26 House seats — Democrats would need fewer than ~20 net gains. Gerrymandering could dampen the effect. This scenario (Democrats in the House, Republicans in the Senate) would be a classic split Congress — consistent with the open platform prediction that Republicans retain the Senate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen Repräsentantenhaus 2026 – 83 % (Stand 12.07.2026)
- Kalshi: Demokratischer Sweep 43–44 % (Stand Ende Mai 2026, Federal News Network)
- Generic Ballot Democrats: +5–6 Punkte (Umfragen Juni 2026)
- CRS / historischer Schnitt: Präsidentenpartei verliert ~26 House-Sitze bei Midterms
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.