Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm elections (November 3, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket rates Democrats as clear favourites to control the House after the 2026 midterms (trade volume: USD 8.7M as of July 21, 2026). Generic-ballot polls show a 5–6-point Democratic lead (June 2026). Historically, the president's party loses ~26 House seats at midterms; Republicans hold a narrow majority and would need to limit losses to single digits. All 435 seats are up. Note: Democratic Senate majority is already a separate platform prediction; the House is a distinct contest.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Which party will win the House in 2026?': Demokraten klare Favoriten, ~$8,7M Handelsvolumen (Polymarket, 21. Juli 2026)
- Generischer Wahlabsicht-Vorsprung Demokraten: 5–6 Pp (Federal News Network / Tradetheoutcome.com, Juni 2026)
- Historischer Midterm-Durchschnitt: Präsidentenpartei verliert ~26 Sitze (Cook Political Report / historische Analyse)
- Polycopy Polymarket-Midterm-Aggregat: House-Kontrolle Demokraten heavy favorites (Polycopy.app, Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.