🏛️ Politics · Next Year

A Democrat wins the Wisconsin gubernatorial election (USA) on 3 November 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

52%

Wisconsin elects a new governor on November 3, 2026. Tony Evers (D) is constitutionally term-limited after two terms. Wisconsin is a genuine swing state: Biden won it in 2020 by just +0.6%, Evers was re-elected in 2022 by ~+3.4%. Historical midterm patterns under a Republican president (Trump 2nd term) favour Democrats in competitive gubernatorial races (+6–8pp average vs. a normal election). The Milwaukee metro area and college cities (Madison, Green Bay) are demographically shifting toward Democrats. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this specific race; estimate based on structural analysis and midterm dynamics.

Data basis for this prediction

Wisconsin 2020 Presidential: Biden +0,6 %; 2022 Governor: Evers +3,4 % (U.S. Election Atlas)
Historische Midterm-Gouverneursmuster: Oppositionspartei gewinnt unter GOP-Präsident im Schnitt 3–4 Gouverneursposten (Cook Political Report / Ballotpedia)
Tony Evers term-limited nach Amtszeiten 2019–2023 und 2023–2027 (ballotpedia.org, Wisconsin Constitution Art. V § 1)
Cook Political Report Wisconsin 2026: kein Rating publiziert; eigene strukturelle Einschätzung (Juli 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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