Republican Party retains its majority in the US Senate at the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (more than 50 seats)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The 2026 US midterm elections feature Class 3 Senate seats – many of which were won by Democrats in the 2020 Biden wave (including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). Republicans currently hold a Senate majority (~53:47). In mid-term cycles with opposition sentiment against the presidential party, Republicans historically perform well in Senate defense. Polymarket and Kalshi price Republicans to hold the Senate at approximately 60–65%. This prediction complements – without contradicting – the existing open forecast 'Democrats win House majority' (a separate chamber).
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Republikaner halten US-Senat – implizierte ~62% Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 13.07.2026)
- Kalshi: US Senate Majority 2026 – Republicans favored ~63% (Stand 13.07.2026)
- Cook Political Report: 2026 Senate map – Demokraten verteidigen viele 2020-Swing-State-Sitze
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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