🏛️ Politics
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PolitPro Election Trend (August 23, 2026): SD at 19.3%. More recent individual polls show significantly higher figures: Verian (Aug 25–Sep 7, 2026) 20.8%; Indikator (Aug 18–Sep 8, 2026) 21.0%; Novus (Sep 8–19, 2026) 23.9%. SD tends to outperform polls in Sweden ('shy voter' effect). The 20% threshold is close to the current polling average; late shifts and mobilisation effects favour crossing it. No direct prediction market pricing available.
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Current polls (Demoskop/Ipsos, as of ca. 20 August 2026) show Moderata samlingspartiet (M) at approximately 16.8%, down from 19.1% in the 2022 Riksdag election. The 16.0% threshold is only 0.8 percentage points below the current polling average – not secured given typical ±2-3% polling uncertainty. M is the leading force of the center-right Alliance bloc. Current open forecasts see Sverigedemokraterna (SD) above 20% and Socialdemokraterna (S) above 30%, structurally pushing M to third or fourth rank – further evidence of losses vs. 2022. Metaculus/Polymarket: no specific M markets found; internal model implies ~62% for M above 16.0%.
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Liberalerna (L) is polling at approximately 2% in current surveys (PolitPro trend, 25 August 2026) – massively below the 4% threshold. The gap of 2 percentage points is historically rarely bridged in the final campaign weeks without an external shock. Comparable coalition partners show comfortable buffers: Centerpartiet (C) 7.6%, Kristdemokraterna (KD) 6.4%. The PolitPro forecast model implies >85% probability of L failing to enter the Riksdag.
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In the 2022 Riksdag election, KD received 6.4% (well above threshold). Historically KD ranges between 4.5% and 11.8%. As a coalition partner in the Swedish Alliance government (M–KD–SD–L since autumn 2022), KD has incumbency advantage, strong party organisation and a stable Christian-conservative voter base. Compared with Liberalerna (L), for which the platform already forecasts a failure to clear 4%, KD is substantially broader in appeal. Calibration is based on historical election results and comparative party analysis, as explicit August 2026 polling data were not directly available. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) covers the Swedish 2026 election.
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The PolitPro Election Trend (August 2026) puts the Socialdemokraterna at 30.5%, followed by Sverigedemokraterna (19.3%), Moderaterna (17.6%), Centerpartiet (7.6%), Miljöpartiet (7.5%), Vänsterpartiet (7.4%), Kristdemokraterna (6.4%), and Liberalerna (2.0%). The SAP is historically Sweden's strongest party and traditionally mobilises strongly on election day. For a result below 30%, the SAP would need to underperform polls by more than 0.5 percentage points – possible but not the base case. The governing coalition (SD+M+KD+L) has 45% of seats per PolitPro, emphasising SAP's opposition role and boosting its mobilisation. Probability: 58%.
🏛️ Politics
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The most recent Swedish poll (Indikator, fieldwork August 6–23, 2026) shows SD at 19.7%. In the 2022 Riksdag election SD got 20.5%. As support party of the Kristersson government, SD benefits from governing proximity without direct responsibility; migration debate and crime topics continue to bolster its voter base. The 17.5% threshold implies a –2.2 pp miss vs. current polls — conservatively set. No direct Polymarket market found for SD's individual result.
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Vänsterpartiet polls at 7.4% in the current PolitPro aggregate (as of 25 Aug 2026) — clearly above the 7.0% threshold. Ipsos May 2026 shows the party at 8%, SCB May 2026 at 8.6% (±0.8%). All available polls consistently place V above 7.0%. Historically Vänsterpartiet tends to slightly underperform its poll numbers on election day (typically –0.5 to –1 pp), which at a 7.4% aggregate still leaves the 7% threshold likely intact. No Polymarket or Metaculus market found for this specific threshold. Not covered by existing open predictions.
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Current polls (PolitPro.eu, Wikipedia aggregate, as of August 2026): M 17.6%, SD 19.3%, KD 6.4%, L 2.0% – combined 45.3%. At an assumed turnout of ~84%, this corresponds mathematically to approximately 158 seats – well below the required majority of 175. Compounding factor: Liberalerna (L) at 2.0% is well below the 4% threshold and, per open prediction, does not enter the Riksdag, reducing the coalition to M+SD+KD ≈ 43.3% (~151 seats). Even with a maximum polling error of +3 pp for the bloc, no majority is achievable. No Polymarket market found for Tidö coalition majority.
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Current polls show Moderaterna stable at 18.0–19.5%: Indikator (Aug 6–23): 18.9%; Demoskop (Jul–Aug 2026): ~18.5%. As the largest center-right party and Tidö coalition leader, M has efficient voter mobilization in urban and suburban areas. The 17.5% threshold sits 1.4 percentage points below the current polling average — falling short would require historically weak turnout. No Polymarket market specifically for the M vote share; calibrated from polling aggregate.
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Current polls show Centerpartiet clearly above the 4% threshold: Indikator (Aug 6–23): 5.9%; Novus (Aug): 7.9%; Verian (Aug): 8.0%; Demoskop (Jul–Aug): 7.3% — aggregate approximately 7.3%. C stands roughly 3.3 percentage points above the threshold. As a rural-rooted party with a stable core electorate and strong mobilization, the risk of failure is low. Historically: C has not fallen below 5% at Riksdag elections since 1988. No Polymarket market available.
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Liberalerna polls at just 2.0% in the current aggregate (August 13–24, 2026) — far below the 4% national threshold. Even allowing for a ±2pp polling error, the probability of clearing the threshold is very low. In 2022 the party barely entered parliament at 4.7%; the current slump to 2.0% reflects the structural decline of Sweden's liberal center. Doubling support in 2.5 weeks without a dramatic catalyst is historically unprecedented.
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Aggregated polls (Novus, Demoskop, Verian, Ipsos, Indikator, SCB) show Socialdemokraterna stable at 31.0% (August 2026). The 28% threshold is 3 percentage points below the weighted average — a buffer that remains achievable even under an unfavourable polling error. Historical baseline: S received 30.3% at the 2022 Riksdag election, close to polling. The red-green bloc (S+V+MP) is tied with the centre-right bloc at 45.8% each — an extremely tight race that does not fundamentally threaten S's base vote. No direct Polymarket market for this specific threshold.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (Novus, Verian, Demoskop, PolitPro trend as of August 28, 2026) place SD at ~19.2%. Polymarket gives SD an 81% probability of finishing second behind Social Democrats (S ~32–34%). The 18.0% threshold sits ~1.2 points below the current polling average. In the 2022 election SD won 20.5% — a slight decline is possible, but a drop below 18% is unlikely. Note: existing open predictions cover S, M, L, C, V, and the Tidö majority — SD vote share itself is uncovered.
🏛️ Politics
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Vänsterpartiet received only 6.7% in the 2022 Riksdag election and is tracking 8–10% in current polls (August 2026, Novus / Ipsos / Demoskop) after a clear upward trajectory. The party benefits from dissatisfaction with the Tidö coalition (Moderaterna/SD/KD/L), Sweden's weak economic climate, and rising inequality. A result above 7.5% appears probable. No explicit Polymarket market for V; calibration is based on polling data. Downside risk: Social Democrat mobilisation could drain left-wing voters.
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Kristdemokraterna poll at 6.7% per the current PolitPro electoral trend (August 2026) – well above the 4% threshold and clearly above the 6.0% prediction marker. Swedish opinion polls are historically reliable: the mean absolute deviation between the final poll and the actual result at national elections is typically under 1.5 pp. For KD to fall below 6.0% would require at least a 0.7 pp shortfall versus current poll averages – possible but unlikely. The party is stabilised within the centre-right opposition bloc (Alliansen) and is not experiencing the same voter bleed to Sverigedemokraterna as the Moderates. No Polymarket market for the specific KD vote share.
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PolitPro Election Trend (as of August 2026) shows Miljöpartiet at 7.1% — comfortably above the 4% Riksdag threshold. The party has recovered from its 2022 historic low of 5.1%; the forecast model projects 26 Riksdag seats. No open Cassandra prediction covers Miljöpartiet. With a polling average of 7.1% and typical Swedish polling uncertainty of ±1.2 pp, the probability of finishing above 6.5% is approximately 68–72%. Polymarket does not list a separate MP market.
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The most recent Demoskop poll (August 24, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.2%; the PolitPro Election Trend places them at 17.9%. The party leads the governing centre-right alliance under PM Ulf Kristersson. The 16.0% threshold sits 1.2 percentage points below the polling anchor and would imply the party's worst post-war result — unlikely without a dramatic change in the remaining two weeks. No direct market quote found on Polymarket/Kalshi for this specific outcome.
🏛️ Politics
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The PolitPro election trend aggregate (as of August 28, 2026, including the Demoskop poll of August 24) places Centerpartiet at 7.2%. The Demoskop poll itself shows 7.7%. The 6.5% threshold provides a buffer of ~0.7–1.2pp below the current polling range. At the 2022 Riksdag election Centerpartiet received 6.7%, making 6.5% a non-trivial floor. Centerpartiet is currently stable in Swedish polls and competes with Vänsterpartiet (7.3%) and Miljöpartiet (7.1%) for similar vote shares. No specific Polymarket markets for individual Swedish party results identified; purely polling-based calibration.
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The latest Demoskop poll of 24 August 2026 shows the Social Democrats at 30.4%. The threshold of 31.0% is 0.6 percentage points above the current polling level, within the typical swing between final polls and election results in Sweden. Historically: S got exactly 31.0% in 2014, 30.3% in 2022, 28.3% in 2018. As opposition since 2022 (Tidö coalition under Ulf Kristersson, M), the Social Democrats benefit from incumbency fatigue and elevated cost of living. Wahlrecht.de consensus shows S in the 30.5–32% range. Confirmed by Valmyndigheten.
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Current polls place the Sweden Democrats well above the threshold: Demoskop (fieldwork August 24, 2026) shows SD at 18.3%, the PolitPro trend model projects 19.2%. SD would thus be the second-largest party with 67–70 Riksdag seats. No prediction market trades this threshold directly; polling averages imply approximately 82% probability. Residual risks (weak mobilization, tactical voting toward Moderaterna) are limited.