🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential election (4 October 2026): Flávio Bolsonaro (Partido Liberal, PL) receives more than 33.0% of valid votes in the first round

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

Current polls (AS/COA Poll Tracker, 15 August 2026) show Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–40% (average ~35–36%), Lula at 38–43%. A runoff is likely; a compatible open prediction on this platform expects Lula to fall short of 50%. Polymarket signals a first-round Lula failure as probable. A Bolsonaro result below 33% would imply a significant polling underestimation. This prediction is fully compatible with the runoff scenario (25 October 2026).

Data basis for this prediction

AS/COA Poll Tracker Brasilienwahl: Bolsonaro 31–40%, Lula 38–43% (15. August 2026)
Al Jazeera: 'Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election' (15. August 2026)
Polymarket Brazil Presidential Election 2026 (August 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Flávio Bolsonaro erzielte im ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Berichten 47,03 % der gültigen Stimmen – weit über der Schwelle von 33,0 %. Lula kam auf 45,16 %. Beide zogen in die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 ein. Die Vorhersage wurde damit klar erfüllt; Bolsonaro übertraf sogar die Umfrage-Durchschnittswerte (~35–36 %) deutlich. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Brazilian general election', AS/COA 'Four Points to Understand the First-Round Results', NPR 2026-10-04, Americas Quarterly 'Reaction: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Advance to Brazil's Presidential Runoff'.

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