Bundestag passes the income tax relief core of the Merz coalition's 'Programme for Revival and Employment' (~€10bn/year) by September 30, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. September 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The Merz coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) presented a 34-measure reform package on July 1–2, 2026, with ~€10bn/year in income tax relief (effective 2027). The coalition holds a clear Bundestag majority. Merz framing: July 2026 government policy statement as a 'government of renewal'. Bundesrat consent (required for tax measures) remains a separate risk. This prediction covers only the Bundestag vote in first and second/third readings. Risk: parliamentary summer recess could push the vote into autumn.
Data basis for this prediction
- Merz-Koalition: Reformpaket '34 Maßnahmen', ~€10 Mrd. Steuersenkung/Jahr (Bloomberg/Al Jazeera, 01.07.2026)
- Bundestag: CDU/CSU + SPD Koalitionsmehrheit; Merz Regierungserklärung Juli 2026 (Bundesregierung)
- Bundesrat: Länder-Bedenken wegen Steuerausfällen – separates Ratifizierungsrisiko (Bloomberg, 01.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Das Kabinett billigte die Einkommensteuerreform am 2.09.2026, aber der Bundestag hat das Gesetz bis zum 30.09.2026 nicht verabschiedet. Die Entlastungen sollen erst ab 2027 wirken – der Bundestagsbeschluss liegt noch aus. Quelle: BMF, Bundesregierung.
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