Suverēnā vara (SV) receives more than 10.0% of votes cast in the Latvian parliamentary election (Saeima, October 3, 2026, confirmed by Latvijas Centrālā vēlēšanu komisija or LETA by October 4, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Suverēnā vara (SV) polls at 10.2% (+7.0 percentage points vs. 2022) in the September 25, 2026 PolitPro election trend, placing it exactly at the 10% threshold. Typical Latvian polling margins of ±2–3 percentage points leave the outcome open. For context: Progresīvie (12.3%) and JV (7.0%) are covered by existing open predictions; SV is currently unpredicted. No specific prediction market data for SV. No contradiction with the open 'LPV highest vote share' prediction (LAS leads at 23.4%, LPV at 12.7% in polls).
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Latvia 2026 Election Trend: SV 10,2% (+7,0 Pkt. ggü. 2022), Stand 25.09.2026 (politpro.eu)
- LSM.lv — Wahlumfragen Lettland, Latvia First behält Umfrageführung (22.05.2026)
- Wikipedia — 2026 Latvian parliamentary election: Vollständige Parteienliste und Umfrageverlauf (Stand 25.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Suverēnā vara (SV) erzielte ~14 % der Stimmen, über der 10%-Marke (Quellen: Politpro.eu, Wikipedia)
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