🏛️ Politics · Next Month

The UN Security Council officially recommends a candidate to succeed Secretary-General Guterres to the UN General Assembly by 1 October 2026 (term starting 1 January 2027, confirmed by UN press release or Reuters/AFP)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 1. October 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

71%

António Guterres' second term as UN Secretary-General ends 31 December 2026. Historical pattern: Ban Ki-moon was recommended by the Security Council in October 2006 for January 2007 and confirmed by the General Assembly; Guterres himself in October 2016 for January 2017. UNGA 81 High-Level General Debate runs 22–28 September 2026. The candidacy process historically accelerates ahead of this debate. Failure by 1 October is possible (e.g. Security Council veto blockade) but historically uncommon. Model: 71% probability for a recommendation by 1 October.

Data basis for this prediction

UN.org: UNGA 81 High-Level Week 22.–28. Sep. 2026 – Guterres-Nachfolge als Hauptthema
SDG Knowledge Hub: 81. UNGA-Session eröffnet Sep. 2025, läuft bis Sep. 2026
Historisches Muster: Ban Ki-moon SC-Empfehlung Oktober 2006; Guterres Oktober 2016
Wokeey: UN General Assembly 2026 – Nachfolge Guterres dominiert Agenda

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Der UN-Sicherheitsrat hat bis zum 1. Oktober 2026 keine formelle Empfehlung an die Generalversammlung verabschiedet. Nach dem 4. Straw Poll (29. Sept.) führt Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) mit 10 'encourage'-Stimmen, aber eine offizielle Resolution (mind. 9 Stimmen inkl. P5-Konsens) wurde noch nicht beschlossen. Quellen: Security Council Report, PassBlue, The National News.

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