🏛️ Politics
· Next Year
US Congress fails to pass a complete FY2027 budget by September 30, 2026 and instead passes at least one short-term Continuing Resolution (confirmed by CRS, Congressional Record, or Treasury)
Probability
77%
The US Congress has almost never passed a complete annual budget by the legally required September 30 deadline since the 1990s. Virtually every year since 1997 has been bridged by short-term Continuing Resolutions (CR) or omnibus packages. The FY2027 budget (starting October 1, 2026) must be passed in an election year (November 2026 midterms) in a polarised Congress. Before the midterms, fiscal unity is structurally unlikely — CR tactics are embedded. The political budget deficit for FY2026 already exceeds $2 trillion (existing open prediction), adding spending pressure. Base rate: ~95% historically; slightly conservatively set at 77% due to marginal possibility of a budget deal.
Data basis for this prediction
- CRS/Congressional Budget Office: Historische Analyse – vollständige Jahreshaushalte bis 30. Sept. seit 1997 extrem selten
- US Treasury/CNBC: US-Haushalt FY2026 – kumulatives Defizit >2 Billionen USD (Midterm-Prognose per Juli 2026)
- 270toWin/Metaculus: Midterm Elections November 2026 – polarisiertes Kongress-Umfeld erwartet
- CongressGov: FY2027 Appropriations noch nicht eingeleitet – Stand 20.07.2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.