🏛️ Politics
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Die Linke is structurally significantly stronger in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern than the national average and has governed as SPD coalition partner since 2016. Current polls: PolitPro trend (September 1, 2026) 11.2%, INSA/Nordkurier (August 2026) 11%, Infratest dimap (July 2026) 12%. The 8.0% threshold is approximately 3 percentage points below the lowest poll (11%). Even with a combined polling overhang effect and vote loss to SPD/BSW, falling below 8% would be extraordinary. The party benefits from long government participation (well-known state ministers), stable core voters in rural northeastern Germany, and absent BSW competition on the left flank if BSW misses the 5% threshold.
🏛️ Politics
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Polymarket and Kalshi price approximately 70% probability for an unchanged Federal Funds Rate in September; ~28–35% for a 25 bps hike; near-zero for a cut. Three FOMC members already dissented at the July 2026 meeting in favour of a hike (persistent inflation, geopolitical risks). The BEA PCE deflator for July 2026 came in at 3.1%+ annualised (open prediction), keeping policy under pressure without forcing the majority into immediate action. Polymarket sees 34% probability of a hike; the majority position remains data-watching.
🏛️ Politics
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Kalshi prediction market (as of 24 Aug. 2026, via centralbank.watch) puts the hold probability at the September FOMC meeting (15–16 Sep.) at 73% (26% hike, 1% cut). Polymarket shows a similar hold majority. Background: Core PCE July 2026 ≥3.2% YoY (open prediction), geopolitical energy price risk (WTI ~$85–86) and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole signal against immediate cuts (open prediction). The data backdrop argues for waiting for further evidence. The October cut (open prediction: −25bp to 3.25–3.50% on 29 Oct.) is consistent with a September hold. Kalshi quote as primary anchor: 73%.
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In the July 20 Sangiin election, LDP won only 39 of 125 contested seats, and the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its Upper House majority – for the first time since the LDP's founding in 1955. CSIS notes 'prolonged instability'. Historical pattern: Japanese PMs often resign after Upper House defeats (Abe 2007 after 37 seats, Noda 2013). Takaichi won a two-thirds Lower House supermajority in February 2026, but losing both chambers creates severe governance blockades. The LDP may internally push for a leadership change. No equivalent open prediction on the platform (only election results, not subsequent politics).
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (Polara, as of July 2026) show Liberalerna (L) at just 1% — far below Sweden's 4% electoral threshold. The party is part of the Tidökoalitionen government (M, SD, KD, L) under PM Ulf Kristersson but has been losing relevance for years. Falling below 4% would deprive the Tidö coalition of its parliamentary majority: the right bloc polls ~44% versus ~47% for the left bloc. About 7 weeks remain until the 13 September election; recovering from 1% to ≥4% would require trebling vote share — historically rare in Swedish short-term polling trends. No Polymarket market for Sweden 2026; own calibration 72%.
🏛️ Politics
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Socialdemokraterna (S) has been Sweden's largest single party in virtually every Riksdag election since 1917. In 2022, S received 30.3% (SD: 20.5%; M: 19.1%). An existing Cassandra prediction forecasts Liberalerna (L) failing the 4% threshold — a sign of erosion in the Tidö coalition bloc (M+SD+KD+L), which relatively strengthens S. No current Polymarket market found for this specific question. 65% reflects S's historical dominance and the uncertainty around the precise vote share.
🏛️ Politics
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France holds parliamentary elections with the decisive second round on September 27, 2026; the first round takes place approximately September 13. In the 2024 legislative elections, RN obtained ~33% in the first round — despite the subsequent 'Front républicain' substantially reducing their seat count. PM Lecornu surviving all no-confidence votes through August 31 (open prediction) indicates ongoing centrist political instability. RN's structural upward trend continues (2022: ~18% → 2024: ~33%). No specific Polymarket contract found for the 2026 French election; IFOP/ELABE polls show RN consistently at 29–35%.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (PolitPro/Novus/Demoskop, July 2026) show the left bloc (S+V+MP+others) at ~47.2% combined, the centre-right bloc (SD, M, KD, L) at ~52.8%. Social Democrats lead individually at 32.2–32.4% (separate open forecast ≥29%), but the right bloc leads in the overall aggregate. A threshold of >50% from a polling level of 52.8% leaves adequate buffer. No direct Polymarket contract found.
🏛️ Politics
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Current Swedish polls (July 22, 2026) show Socialdemokraterna at 32.4% (PolitPro trend) and 32.2% (Polara 30-day average) — clearly above the 30.0% threshold. At the 2022 Riksdag election they received 30.3%. This prediction complements the open forecast ('bourgeois bloc M+KD+L+SD > 50%') without contradicting it: both scenarios occurred simultaneously in 2022. No Polymarket anchor; calibrated against current polling data.
🏛️ Politics
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Latest Novus poll (July 6–19, 2026): SD at 20.4%. SD has grown consistently since the 2018 election (17.5%) and 2022 (20.5%), stable at current levels. Dominant election themes — crime, gang violence, immigration — are SD core issues that continue to mobilize voters. The 19.0% threshold is well below the polling average (20.4%), allowing for a ±2 percentage point polling error buffer. No explicit Kalshi/Polymarket market found; calibrated based on polling range May–July 2026 (19–21%).
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (August 2026) show the Social Democrats (S) at ~33%; the Moderaterna (M) poll at ~19–21%. The ~12–14 percentage-point gap is structural. The Red-Green opposition bloc leads at 52–55% versus the Tidö governing bloc at 42–46%. Polymarket and Metaculus imply a government change with ~70–75% probability. The existing open prediction reads 'S exceeds 30.0%'; this prediction focuses on the relative ranking (largest single party) – a technically distinct measure that could be true even with a narrow result below 30% if M falls further.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (August 2026) put the center-right governing bloc at ~45% total. Moderaterna scored 19.1% in 2022. Current Sifo/Novus polls show M at 16–19%, making 18% a borderline threshold. If SD is at ~20% and bloc total is 45%, M+KD+L = 25%; with KD ~5.5% and L ~4.5%, M computes to ~15–16%. Only if the bloc outperforms (≥46%) or SD underperforms (<19%) does >18% for M become plausible. Polymarket has no specific Moderaterna question.
🏛️ Politics
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Current seat projection (PolitPro.eu, August 2026): Socialdemokraterna 110 of 349 Riksdag seats = ~31.5% vote share. The open platform prediction that they become the largest single party is already open — >30% is a more specific quantitative threshold, independent of that. At current polling (31.5%), the value exceeds 30%, but with uncertainty: Swedish polls historically have ±2–3% margin of error. If SAP fell to 28–29%, they could still be largest party (if all others are smaller), but the 30% threshold would be missed. Based on current polling, probability ~55%.
🏛️ Politics
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In the snap parliamentary election of July 2024, the RN achieved ~33.2% in the first round — a historic high. Since then, immigration and purchasing power have consolidated as dominant issues; current polls show RN consistently at 32–36% voting intentions. The existing open prediction (Bardella will not become PM by October 2026) implies RN remains the largest force without forming a government — consistent with a first-round result >33% without an absolute majority. No Polymarket/Metaculus price found; estimate based on 2024 precedent and August 2026 poll consensus.
🏛️ Politics
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Aggregated polls from August 22, 2026 show SD at 19.3% (PolitPro), 20.1% (Fred Cornell/valkoll2026.se), and 19.9% (Polara) – consistently above the 19% threshold for months. SD is the second-largest party behind Socialdemokraterna (31.0%), well ahead of Moderaterna (17.6%). Historically, SD results have slightly exceeded poll estimates ('Shy SD' effect). No Polymarket quote available. Not covered by existing open predictions (only S >30% and M >18% are open).
🏛️ Politics
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Current Swedish polling (PolitPro, August 23, 2026) shows Liberalerna at 2.0% — well below the 4% legal threshold. Polymarket prices the Social Democrats (S) as election winner at 99%; Liberalerna does not appear in any leading party markets. Even with a historically high positive polling deviation of +1.8 percentage points, the party would not cross the threshold. Liberalerna has consistently polled below 4% since 2023.
🏛️ Politics
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In the first round of snap French parliamentary elections (September 13, 2026), the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP: LFI, PS, Greens, PCF) runs as a unified alliance. Current polls (August 22, 2026) show NFP at ~24% — well above the 20.0% threshold. RN leads at ~33–35% (consistent with existing Cassandra prediction: RN >33%). A NFP result of ≥20% is expected with ~74% probability. Main risks: tactical vote-splitting in round one, youth mobilization shortfalls. Reference: NFP achieved 28.1% in round one of the 2024 elections.
🏛️ Politics
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The PolitPro Election Trend aggregate (as of 22 Aug. 2026) puts Ensemble at 14.0% – 2 percentage points below the prediction threshold. RN leads with 35%, NFP follows at 24%, LR at 12%. In 5 of the last 6 published polls, Ensemble consistently polled at 13–15%. Typical polling errors (+/−2 pp) could push the figure toward the threshold, but systematically higher Ensemble strength is unlikely given the electoral context (no presidential coattails in a legislative election). Existing open predictions cover RN >33% and NFP >20%; Ensemble is not addressed.
🏛️ Politics
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The PolitPro Election Trend of August 22, 2026 shows RN at 35% nationally – well ahead of the Nouveau Front Populaire (24%) and Ensemble (<16%). Existing platform predictions cover the NFP and Ensemble thresholds but not the RN first-round share. Historically, RN overperforms its national polling by +1.5 to +2.5 pp. in the first round. Marine Le Pen announced her 2027 presidential candidacy (July 2026), giving the RN camp additional mobilization momentum. The 33.0% threshold is conservative below the polling average of 35%. Implied probability: ~62%.
🏛️ Politics
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Social Democrats poll at 30.5% in the PolitPro Election Trend and at a 30-day average of 31.8% (Polara.se, August 2026). The party benefits from incumbent fatigue against the Kristersson government (M/SD/KD/L) and strong competency perceptions on social and economic issues. The left bloc (S + V + MP) polls at 46.5% and is likely to enable government formation. The 30.0% threshold is near the lower polling range; historically Swedish polls slightly underestimate S by 1-2 percentage points. Liberalerna likely fails the threshold (separate open Cassandra prediction). No Polymarket market for this exact threshold.