🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Latvian Parliamentary Election (Saeima, October 3, 2026): Apvienotais saraksts receives the most votes with more than 20.0 percent (confirmed by Latvia's Central Election Commission or LETA by October 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

75%

In Latvia's October 3, 2026 Saeima election, September polls place Apvienotais saraksts (LZP/LRA/LP) at 22.8%—ahead of SV (12.7%), LPV (12.6%), Progresīvie (12.1%), Nacionālā Apvienība (9.4%), and Jaunā Vienotība (8.1%). The lead over second place is 10.1 percentage points. The current ruling coalition is projected at only ~29% of seats under current trends, losing its majority. Polymarket operates an active market for the election winner. Even allowing for typical ±4pp polling error, Apvienotais saraksts would retain first place; however, the >20.0% threshold could be narrowly missed if the party underperforms by ~3pp (occurring in ~20% of cases), reducing the probability slightly below the first-place probability alone.

Data basis for this prediction

politpro.eu Latvia Election Trend September 2026: Apvienotais saraksts 22,8 %, SV 12,7 %
Wikipedia '2026 Latvian parliamentary election': Wahltermin 3. Oktober, 14 Parteien, PR-System
eng.lsm.lv 31.08.2026: Latvian Saeima elections 2026 — Parteien und Wahlprogramme
Polymarket 'Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner': aktiver Markt (22.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] AS erzielte ~28 % der Stimmen, deutlich über der 20%-Marke (Quellen: Politpro.eu, Wikipedia)

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026