🏛️ Politics · Next Year

ANO (Andrej Babiš) becomes the largest party in the Czech Chamber of Deputies at the parliamentary elections (October 3/4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

84%

ANO has led Czech polls for over three years with a stable 30-35%. PM Fiala's coalition (ODS) polls at ~20-23%. Babiš previously served as PM (2017-2021); criminal proceedings (Stork Nest subsidy case) were dropped. Czech polling platforms (STEM, Median) rate ANO as clear frontrunner. No Polymarket or Metaculus market identified. Populist parties in Central-Eastern Europe with sustained multi-year polling leads have a high conversion rate on election day.

Data basis for this prediction

ANO Umfragewerte: 30–35 % über 3 Jahre stabil (Politpro.eu/STEM/Median Tschechien, 2025–2026)
Fiala-Koalition ODS: ~20–23 % in jüngsten Umfragen (Tschechische Demoskopie, 2026)
Tschechische Parlamentswahl: 3./4. Oktober 2026 (Verfassungsrechtlicher 4-Jahres-Zyklus ab 2021)
Babiš Strafverfolgung (Subsidienfall) eingestellt (Tschechische Staatsanwaltschaft, 2023)

Verdict: Hit

ANO (Andrej Babiš) wurde tatsächlich stärkste Fraktion im tschechischen Abgeordnetenhaus. Bei der Parlamentswahl am 3.–4. Oktober 2025 (nicht 2026 – die Vorhersage hatte das Jahr falsch, die Wahlen fanden regulär 2025 statt) erzielte ANO 34,5 % der Stimmen und 80 von 200 Mandaten – das beste Ergebnis in der Geschichte der Partei. Die Vorhersage trifft in der Substanz vollständig zu. Babiš bildete im Dezember 2025 eine Koalitionsregierung mit SPD und AUTO. Quelle: OSW Analysis (2025-10-06) https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-10-06/parliamentary-elections-czech-republic-babiss-triumph, Wikipedia '2025 Czech parliamentary election', ZDF Heute https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/ausland/tschechien-wahl-parlament-babis-fiala-100.html

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026