🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) receives more than 40.0% of valid votes in the 1st round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

65%

All current polls (BTG Nexus/Nexus Pesquisas, Sept 28: Lula 42%, F. Bolsonaro 37%; Datafolha: Lula 41%) consistently place Lula above 40%. The AS/COA Poll Tracker shows Lula above 40% in every September survey. This prediction is consistent with existing open Cassandra forecasts ('runoff needed' and 'Bolsonaro >35%'): at Lula 42% + Bolsonaro 37%, neither a majority nor a contradiction arises. A second round on October 25 is near-certain.

Data basis for this prediction

BTG Nexus / Nexus Pesquisas, 28. September 2026: Lula 42 %, F. Bolsonaro 37 %
AS/COA Brazil 2026 Presidential Poll Tracker — Lula >40 % in allen September-Umfragen
US News / Reuters: 'Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead', 28. September 2026
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE): Wahltermine — 1. Runde 4. Oktober 2026

Verdict: Hit

Lula erhielt im ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 offiziell 45,16 % der gültigen Stimmen (53.879.538 Stimmen), laut TSE-Ergebnissen. Das liegt klar über der Schwelle von 40,0 %. Flávio Bolsonaro erzielte 47,03 % und ging als Erstplatzierter in die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober. Die Vorhersage war damit zutreffend, auch wenn Lula entgegen den Umfragen (die ihn vorne sahen) tatsächlich hinter Bolsonaro landete. Quellen: TSE (resultados.tse.jus.br), Carta Capital ('TSE encerra apuração do 1º turno'), Americas Quarterly ('Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Advance to Brazil's Presidential Runoff').

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