🏛️ Politics
· Next Week
Brazil 2026 presidential election (1st round, October 4): Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) receives more than 35.0% of valid votes (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or Reuters by October 5, 2026)
Probability
73%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is the leading conservative challenger against 79-year-old incumbent Lula da Silva (PT). Recent polls show Flávio at 33–43%: Datafolha (Sept 22–24): 36%, Quaest/Genial (Sept 24–27): 34%, AtlasIntel/Bloomberg: 43.4%. The three-poll average is ~38%; even the most conservative polls show him at 34–36%. Prediction markets price Flávio as overall election winner: Polymarket ~58–59%, Kalshi ~61% — a clear market consensus on his mobilization advantage heading into the runoff. The >35% threshold sits near the lower end of the polling range, yielding solid probability. A runoff on October 25 is virtually certain as neither candidate polls above 50%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Datafolha 22.–24.09.2026: Lula 40 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 36 % (Al Jazeera, 25.09.2026)
- Quaest/Genial 24.–27.09.2026: Lula 39 %, Flávio 34 %, Stichwahl 41:41 % (Rio Times Online, 28.09.2026)
- AtlasIntel/Bloomberg September 2026: Lula 45,8 %, Flávio 43,4 %
- Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro gewinnt Präsidentschaft ~58–59 %; Kalshi: ~61 % (Stand 30.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) erzielte im 1. Turno am 4. Oktober 2026 laut offiziellen TSE-Ergebnissen ca. 47,03–47,05 % der gültigen Stimmen – damit übertraf er die Schwelle von 35,0 % deutlich. Lula (PT) kam auf ca. 45,14–45,16 %. Da kein Kandidat die absolute Mehrheit erreichte, kommt es am 25. Oktober 2026 zur Stichwahl. Quellen: Wikipedia (Eleição presidencial no Brasil em 2026), Senado Notícias, Americas Quarterly, Rio Times Online.