🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT, Brazil) receives more than 43.0% of valid votes in the 2026 presidential election first round (October 4, 2026, confirmed by TSE by October 5, 2026)
Probability
65%
Lula runs for re-election as incumbent president. In the 2022 election he already received 48.4% in Round 1 (TSE). Current polls (Datafolha/Ipec, Aug 2026) place him at 42–46% voting intention. Since no candidate is expected to exceed 50%, a runoff is likely — a separate Cassandra prediction covers his runoff victory on October 25. This prediction tests only first-round performance: >43% would demonstrate a strong runoff starting position without contradicting the existing forecast. No direct Polymarket threshold available; Metaculus rates Lula as clear frontrunner.
Data basis for this prediction
- TSE: Ergebnis Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl 2022 – Lula 48,4% in Runde 1
- Datafolha/Ipec: Wahlumfrage Brasilien Aug. 2026 – Lula 42–46% Wahlabsicht
- Metaculus: Lula als Favoritenkandidat Brasilianische Wahl 2026 (Stand Sep. 2026)
- TSE: Brasilianisches Wahlrecht – Direktwahl erfordert >50%; sonst Stichwahl 25. Okt. 2026
Verdict: Hit
Lula erzielte im ersten Wahlgang vom 4. Oktober 2026 ca. 45,15–45,16 % der gültigen Stimmen (≈53,88 Mio. Stimmen, Stand 99,96 % ausgezählter Wahllokale) – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 43,0 %. Flávio Bolsonaro führte mit ~47,03 %, da kein Kandidat die absolute Mehrheit erreichte, findet am 25. Oktober 2026 eine Stichwahl statt. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Brazilian general election', CNN (cnn.com/2026/10/04), Rio Times Online (riotimesonline.com), Americas Quarterly (americasquarterly.org).