Brazilian Presidential Election Round 1 (October 4, 2026): No candidate reaches an absolute majority – runoff on October 25, 2026 becomes necessary (confirmed by TSE or Globo by October 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Real Time Big Data/Quaest, Aug 27–31, 2026): Lula (PT) 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 30%, Augusto Cury 11%, others ~21%. Brazil requires an absolute majority (>50% of valid votes) to avoid a runoff. Even the optimistic scenario for Lula (45%, per open platform prediction) falls short. Polymarket/Metaculus imply >92% probability of a second round.
Data basis for this prediction
- Real Time Big Data/Quaest Umfrage Brasilien, 27.–31. August 2026: Lula 38 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 30 %, Cury 11 % (AS/COA Poll Tracker)
- Al Jazeera: Brazil 2026 – Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (15. August 2026)
- Polymarket: Brazil 2026 Presidential Election Märkte (polymarket.com, Stand September 2026)
- TSE (Tribunal Superior Electoral): Brasilianisches Wahlrecht – 50 %-Hürde erste Runde
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.