🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian Presidential Election Round 1 (4 October 2026): No candidate reaches 50.0% of votes cast – runoff (2nd round, 1 November 2026) required (confirmed by TSE or Reuters by 5 October 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

Polymarket (as of 12 Sep 2026, ~$149M volume) shows a dead heat: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva each at ~49%. A first-round win requires >50% of all valid votes. With two candidates this evenly matched, a first-round knockout is statistically near-impossible; third-candidate votes further depress both below the threshold. Open forecasts (Lula >46%, Bolsonaro >26%) are consistent with this scenario. Estimate: ~88%.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Brazilian Presidential Election 2026 – Bolsonaro 49 %, Lula 49 % (Stand 12.09.2026, ~149 Mio. USD)
TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral): Wahlregeln Brasilien – Stichwahl bei < 50 % Erstrundenanteil
Reuters: Brazil election 2026 – dead heat between Bolsonaro and Lula heading into October (Sep 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Im 1. Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 erhielt Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47,03 % und Lula da Silva (PT) 45,16 % der gültigen Stimmen – keiner überschritt die erforderliche 50-%-Schwelle. Der TSE schloss die Auszählung in der Nacht zum 5. Oktober ab und bestätigte damit die Stichwahl für den 25. Oktober 2026. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Wikipedia (2026 Brazilian general election), Carta Capital.

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