🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Socialdemokraterna (S) leads all current polls as the strongest party in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election (open platform prediction confirms this status). Historical results: 30.3% (2022), 28.3% (2018), 31.0% (2014) – three consecutive elections near or above 30%. The open platform prediction ('S strongest party, above SD with >19%') implies S well above 19%. A threshold of >29.5% is more informative than a trivial >19%, but not certain: 2026 party fragmentation could push S slightly below 30%. No Polymarket market for this specific threshold.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Polls swing from 2.5% (Infostat, Sept 1) to 4.7% (Novus, Sept 11) — both near the 4% threshold. Most September surveys placed Liberalerna below the mark. They barely qualified in 2022 (4.72%). A slight lean toward failing: ~55%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Vänsterpartiet (V) consistently polls at 8.0–8.7% in all current surveys. PolitPro Election Trend from September 11, 2026: 8.0%; Infostat from September 1, 2026: 8.7% (equivalent to 32 Riksdag seats). The party is clearly above the 4% threshold and well above the set 7% threshold. For the prediction to fail, V would need to drop approximately 12–14% from current polling – historically near-impossible given six weeks of polling stability.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Latest polls show Miljöpartiet consistently between 6.8% (Indikator Opinion, Sep 4) and 7.5% (Infostat, Sep 1); PolitPro Election Trend aggregates at 7.4% (27 seats) as of September 12. The 6.0% threshold is ~1.4 points below the polling mid-point. Historically MP has always cleared 6% since 2010 – the sole exception was 2022 (5.1%). Urban climate-voter mobilization and tactical voter returns support the result. No prediction market with this threshold available.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
KD stood at 6.6% in the PolitPro poll aggregate (Sep 11, 2026); individual Sifo/Ipsos/Demoskop polls showed 5.8%–8.5%. KD holds nearly a 3-percentage-point buffer above the 4% threshold. Unlike Liberalerna (L) — existing open Cassandra prediction: L fails — KD's conservative-Christian voter segment shows historically high party loyalty. KD has cleared 4% at every Riksdag election since 2006, including a close 4.6% in 2014. Even with a 3 pp downside polling error, KD remains above 4%. Results expected after 21:00 CET (Valmyndigheten).
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Election night projections showed Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L) at 46.8–47.0% combined. Subtracting estimated shares for Moderaterna (~18%), KD (~5%), Liberalerna (~4–5%) implies an SD total of approximately 19–21%. SD won 20.5% in 2022; 2026 polls consistently placed SD at 18–22%. No direct Polymarket market for SD vote share. Existing open forecasts cover M, V, L, and MP — SD is the only Tidö party without a Cassandra prediction.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Miljöpartiet polls at 6.8–7.9% across all major Swedish pollsters (Demoskop, Novus, PolitPro as of August 2026) — nearly 3 percentage points above the 4% threshold. Swedish polling accuracy has historically been within ±2 points of the final result. The open prediction requiring an S+V+MP majority also implicitly assumes MP in parliament. Calibrated probability of crossing the threshold: ~88%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Demoskop poll (August 13–24, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.2%. PolitPro aggregate also shows ~17%. The center-right party is part of the ruling Tidö coalition and has historically polled between 19–26%; falling below 16% would be its worst result in decades and would require a late campaign collapse. No existing open prediction directly addresses the Moderaterna result.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
PolitPro Election Trend (Sep 2, 2026) projects 26 of 349 Riksdag seats for Centerpartiet (~7.4% of votes). Demoskop poll (Aug 24) confirms centrist positioning: S 30.4%, SD 18.3%, M 17.2%. No direct Polymarket market for C available. The party benefits from voter migration from the dissolving Alliance bloc. The 7.0% threshold is 0.4pp below the seat-projection level – moderate downside risk.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
PolitPro Election Trend (September 2026): Socialdemokraterna at 30.7%. Demoskop poll (August 24, 2026): 30.4%. The party sits exactly at the 30% threshold — historical Swedish election polling errors are typically ±1.5–2%, making this forecast statistically near a coinflip. Factors for >30%: voter mobilization via bloc competition (counter-reaction to Sverigedemokraterna strength at 18.3%), traditional urban party turnout. Factors against: vote migration toward Vänsterpartiet (left) or Miljöpartiet (green). No existing market covers this specific Socialdemokraterna threshold; all other Swedish party calibrations are already in open predictions.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls consistently show SD ahead of M: Demoskop (24 Aug 2026) measures SD 18.3% vs M 17.2%; PolitPro trend shows SD 19.2% vs M 17.9%. The ~1–1.4pp gap is stable across multiple institutes. Open Cassandra predictions set SD >18% and M >16% (both open), consistent with this forecast. The Red-Green bloc can independently win 175+ seats. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi odds for this partial result.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Liberalerna sits well below the 4% threshold in all current polls: PolitPro weighted average (Sep 2, 2026): 2.4%; latest individual poll Infostat (Sep 1, 2026): 2.5%. To enter the Riksdag, the party would need to more than double its support within 12 days — an unprecedented surge in modern Swedish electoral history. Liberalerna last entered in 2022 with 4.7%; support has declined continuously since. No Polymarket market reflects any realistic recovery scenario.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Latest polling: Demoskop August 24, 2026 → 6.8%; PolitPro Election Trend August 28, 2026 → 7.3%. The 6.5% threshold sits clearly below the polling average (~7.1%). Risk factors: Scandinavian left-wing parties tend to experience a slight pre-election squeeze toward Social Democrats (S, 30.7%) — however, this effect is historically rarely larger than 0.5–1.0 percentage points. PolitPro projects V at 27 seats (out of 349), implying >7.0%. No direct Polymarket market on V; Metaculus and PolitPro imply the 4% threshold will be surpassed by a wide margin.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Kristdemokraterna sits at 6.7% in PolitPro's Swedish election trend (early September 2026). A Demoskop poll from August 24, 2026 places them at 8.5%. In the 2022 Riksdag election, KD received 6.4%. The 4% threshold is clearly cleared; the > 6.0% prediction threshold sits 0.7–2.5 percentage points below the latest poll average. No existing open Cassandra entry for KD; all coalition bloc parties (SD, M, L) are already covered. PolitPro places the centre-right governing alliance at 45.6% – just short of a majority. No direct Polymarket market for KD individual percentage.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Current polls show Miljöpartiet clearly above the 5.5% threshold: Infostat (September 1, 2026): 7.5%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 6.8%; PolitPro election trend: 7.2%. The average is 1.7 pp above the prediction threshold. Swedish polls have shown typical deviations of ±1.5-2.0 pp in recent election cycles. Even in a pessimistic scenario (-1.5 pp from poll average), MP would sit at ~5.7% and clear the threshold. Residual uncertainty lies in mobilization effects from other green-adjacent parties. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found for this threshold.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Current aggregated polls place Moderaterna at 17.9% (PolitPro, August 2026), clearly above the 16.0% threshold. The 1.9-percentage-point buffer is robust — such a polling error sits at the edge of the historical demoscopy corridor for Swedish parliamentary elections. The prediction is consistent with the open Cassandra.news entry that Sverigedemokraterna (SD, currently 19.2%) wins more votes than Moderaterna and becomes the second-largest force: SD above M is easily compatible with an M result of 16–18%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
PolitPro election trend (September 3, 2026) shows SD at 19.7%. Infostat poll September 1: 20.2%; Demoskop August 24: 18.3%. Poll average is 19–20%. SD is clearly the second-largest party, behind Social Democrats (~30%), driven by immigration and crime issues. Polymarket prices Socialdemokraterna as winners at 88%. Given polling spread, probability that SD exceeds 19% is approximately 60%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Current polls show the Social Democrats at 27.2% (PolitPro, Sep. 1) to 29.2% (Verian, Aug. 20–Sep. 2, 2026); average ~28.2%. Prediction markets (lines.com) see S as clear election winner at ~88%. The left bloc (S+V+MP+Centre) leads the Tidö coalition by ~8pp. Historically, S received 30.3% in 2022 — falling below 27.5% would be more pronounced than any current poll indicates. The 27.5% threshold sits near the lower bound of the current polling range.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
PolitPro aggregate (September 3, 2026) places Centerpartiet at 7.6% – comfortably above the 4% threshold. The party benefits from Liberalerna's collapse to ~2.5% and has consolidated as the centrist reform party. Historically Centerpartiet polled 8–10%; the current reading of 7.6% shows some erosion but no structural collapse. Swedish polls typically carry ±2–3pp error bands, giving a sub-7% result ~35% probability. No exchange market found; calibrated at 65% from polling average and historical error band.