Swedish Riksdag Election (September 13, 2026): Moderaterna (M) Receives More Than 16.0% of Votes Cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Demoskop poll (August 13–24, 2026) shows Moderaterna at 17.2%. PolitPro aggregate also shows ~17%. The center-right party is part of the ruling Tidö coalition and has historically polled between 19–26%; falling below 16% would be its worst result in decades and would require a late campaign collapse. No existing open prediction directly addresses the Moderaterna result.
Data basis for this prediction
- Demoskop: M 17,2%, S 30,4%, SD 18,3%, KD 8,5%, C 7,7%, V 6,8%, MP 6,8%, L 2,0% (13.–24.08.2026)
- Wikipedia: Opinion polling for 2026 Swedish general election (Stand 02.09.2026)
- PolitPro Sweden – aggregierter Wahltrend Moderaterna ~17% (02.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Moderaterna erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (Valmyndigheten, bestätigt durch PolitPro, ElectioMap und Wikipedia) rund 19,9% der abgegebenen Stimmen. Dies liegt klar über dem vorhergesagten Schwellenwert von 16,0%. Die Umfragen (Demoskop 17,2%, PolitPro-Aggregat ~17%) hatten das tatsächliche Ergebnis sogar noch unterschätzt. Quellen: politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026, electiomap.com/sweden/general/2026, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election
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