🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Miljöpartiet (MP) secures more than 5.5% of votes cast (confirmed via Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

82%

Current polls show Miljöpartiet clearly above the 5.5% threshold: Infostat (September 1, 2026): 7.5%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 6.8%; PolitPro election trend: 7.2%. The average is 1.7 pp above the prediction threshold. Swedish polls have shown typical deviations of ±1.5-2.0 pp in recent election cycles. Even in a pessimistic scenario (-1.5 pp from poll average), MP would sit at ~5.7% and clear the threshold. Residual uncertainty lies in mobilization effects from other green-adjacent parties. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found for this threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

Infostat-Umfrage: Miljöpartiet 7,5 % (politpro.eu, 1. September 2026)
Demoskop-Umfrage: Miljöpartiet 6,8 % (politpro.eu, 24. August 2026)
PolitPro-Wahltrend Schweden: Miljöpartiet 7,2 % (politpro.eu, Stand 3. September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Miljöpartiet erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 offiziell 6,1 % der Stimmen und gewann damit 22 Riksdag-Sitze. Das Ergebnis liegt klar über der Vorhersageschwelle von 5,5 %. Quellen: Wikipedia ('2026 Swedish general election'), PolitPro (politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026) sowie die schwedische Wahlbehörde Valmyndigheten (val.se). Das Ergebnis fiel etwas niedriger aus als der Umfrrageschnitt von ~7,2 % – aber immer noch deutlich über der Schwelle, sodass das pessimistische Szenario (–1,5 pp) nie eingetreten ist.

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