🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 19.0% of votes cast in the Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026, confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

60%

PolitPro election trend (September 3, 2026) shows SD at 19.7%. Infostat poll September 1: 20.2%; Demoskop August 24: 18.3%. Poll average is 19–20%. SD is clearly the second-largest party, behind Social Democrats (~30%), driven by immigration and crime issues. Polymarket prices Socialdemokraterna as winners at 88%. Given polling spread, probability that SD exceeds 19% is approximately 60%.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Sweden Election Trend 3. September 2026: SD 19,7% (politpro.eu)
Infostat Poll 1. September 2026: SD 20,2% (politpro.eu)
Demoskop Poll 24. August 2026: SD 18,3% (politpro.eu)
Polymarket Riksdag-Wahl 2026: Socialdemokraterna 88% Gesamtsieger (polymarket.com, Stand September 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erhielt bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (Valmyndigheten, bestätigt mehrfach durch SVT, Wikipedia und Outlook India) 17,5 % der Stimmen – und verfehlte damit die Vorhersageschwelle von >19,0 % deutlich um 1,5 Prozentpunkte. SD fiel sogar auf Platz 3 zurück (hinter Socialdemokraterna ~28 % und Moderaterna ~19,8 %). Die Umfragen (19–20 %) überschätzten das Ergebnis systematisch; ein klassisches 'late swing away from far-right'-Muster sowie möglicherweise strategisches Wählen zugunsten von M dürften zur Unterschätzung des tatsächlichen Verlustes beigetragen haben. Quellen: Valmyndigheten (val.se), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', Outlook India (17. Sept. 2026).

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