Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more than 19.5% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
Data basis for this prediction
- Indikator Opinion poll (4. September 2026): SD 19,3 % (politpro.eu/en/sweden/...)
- Demoskop poll (24. August 2026): SD 18,3 % (politpro.eu/en/sweden/...)
- PolitPro Election Trend average Sweden 2026: SD ~19,3 % (politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026)
- Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahl 2022 Endergebnis – SD 20,54 %
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] SVT Valu Exit Poll: Sverigedemokraterna bei 17,2 % – deutlich unter der 19,5-%-Hürde (Abstand 2,3 Prozentpunkte). Quelle: The Local / SVT Exit Poll.
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