💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q1-FY2027 results (April–June 2026) on July 29, 2026, after market close; the normalised EPS consensus per MarketBeat/Nasdaq stands at USD 0.40 per ADS; revenue consensus is ~USD 1.26 bn. ARM benefits massively from the AI chip boom: each new Nvidia Blackwell, Qualcomm Snapdragon X, and Apple M-series chip uses ARM v9 cores and pays higher royalties. In the last four quarters, ARM exceeded the normalised EPS consensus each time. No Polymarket equivalent; historical beat rate and AI chip demand support the expectation.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June) on 29 July 2026. Consensus stands at USD 1.53 adjusted EPS (Yahoo Finance/Investing.com) — a steep YoY decline from USD 2.29 driven primarily by tariff and export-control headwinds. However, robust AI chip growth in smartphones (Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 2) and a strong automotive chip segment (+50% YoY recently) work against the pessimistic consensus. Qualcomm's historical beat rate is ~75% (4 trailing quarters). The QTL licensing business shows structurally stable margins. No Polymarket data available; probability based on beat rate and segment trends.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft reports Q4-FY2026 results on July 29, 2026, after market close. Analyst consensus: EPS $4.21–4.24 (+15.3% YoY vs. $3.65 in Q4 FY2025). Microsoft has beaten consensus in over 80% of quarters in recent years, driven by accelerating Azure AI growth, Copilot monetisation, and enterprise cloud demand. Q3-FY2026 (April 2026) showed further accelerating Azure growth as a leading indicator. No contradicting open predictions for Microsoft exist in the system. Calibrated probability: ~74%.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft reports Q4-FY2026 results on July 29, 2026 (tickeron.com earnings preview). Azure has consistently grown 33–35% YoY, driven by AI Copilot integration, Azure OpenAI Service, and enterprise cloud migration. In Q3-FY2026 (April 2026), Microsoft reported ~33% Azure growth. Analyst consensus for Q4 sits near 34–35%. Missing the 34% threshold would imply significant deceleration, inconsistent with heavy AI infrastructure investment across the market. The open prediction 'Microsoft EPS beat Q4-FY2026' covers top-line momentum but not the specific Azure growth metric.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft reports its Q4 FY2026 results (April–June 2026 quarter) on July 29, 2026. Adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus stands at approx. $3.15 (FY2025 Q4: $3.11, +1.3% YoY on consensus; actual growth expected ~8–12% driven by AI monetization). MSFT has beaten analyst consensus in over 90% of all quarters since 2018. An open Cassandra prediction already covers Azure growth >34% YoY for the same quarter – a strong Azure result directly drives total earnings. Copilot licensing revenues (Enterprise) and GitHub Advanced Security are scaling rapidly. No Polymarket market found for MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS. Calibration: 72% based on historical beat rate and fundamental AI growth drivers.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm guided Q3 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS to $2.10–$2.30; analyst consensus ~$2.23. Automotive hit record revenue in Q2 FY2026. Beat rate in last 8 quarters: 7/8. Revenue consensus ($9.67B) sits mid-guidance range — classic under-promise/over-deliver pattern. Risks: Android smartphone softness, China trade restrictions.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Meta reports after market close on July 29, 2026. Revenue consensus stands at $60.18B (MarketBeat) to $61.32B (ChartMill); Meta itself guided for $58–$61B for Q2. EPS consensus is approximately $7.17–7.32 per share. Meta has beaten quarterly revenue consensus in multiple consecutive quarters, driven by AI-powered ad targeting (Advantage+) and growing monetization of Reels and WhatsApp Business. No specific Polymarket market found for Q2 2026 revenue beat; estimate based on historical consistency and a robust digital advertising environment.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft Azure grew 40% in constant currency (CC) in Q3 FY2026. Management guided 39–40% CC growth for Q4 FY2026. HSBC estimates 39.6% CC; the total revenue consensus is approx. $87.6–$89.3 bn. Growth above 39% matches the lower guidance bound and is consistent with Azure's growth trajectory – contingent on no significant capacity-constraint deceleration. Risks: datacentre capacity constraints could delay revenue recognition; USD strength could compress the CC-to-reported conversion, pushing reported USD growth slightly below 39%. The prediction refers exclusively to the CC-denominated figure.
💻 Technology
Partial Hit
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 results (April-June 2026) on July 29, 2026. Own guidance is Non-GAAP EPS $2.10-$2.30 (midpoint $2.20); analyst consensus at approx. $2.20-2.27. Qualcomm benefits in 2026 from strong demand for AI edge chips (Snapdragon platform) in smartphones and automotive, and from diversification away from smartphone dependence. Historically, Qualcomm has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Risk factor: potential slowdown in the global smartphone market. No Polymarket market directly available. Own estimate: 65% probability of beat.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
MSFT has beaten EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters (MarketBeat). Azure cloud growth (+30–35% YoY) and AI revenue mix (Copilot, AI Studio) drive upside surprises. Q4-FY2026 consensus: ~$4.04 (range $3.59–$4.37, +15% YoY vs. $3.65 Q4 FY2025); revenue consensus ~$87.6B. Results after market close July 29. No direct Polymarket signal.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
ARM reports Q1 FY2027 results on July 29, 2026, after market close. Consensus: $0.40 Non-GAAP EPS, revenue ~$1.26B (+20% YoY). ARM benefits massively from the AI chip boom: Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Apple, and AWS chips run on ARM architecture; royalty revenues rise from higher chip ASPs. The stock is up ~240% YTD in 2026. ARM has historically beaten consensus estimates regularly. Own beat-probability estimate: ~65%.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports Q3-FY2026 results (April–June 2026) on July 29, 2026. Company guidance is $2.10–$2.30 Non-GAAP EPS (midpoint: $2.20); analyst consensus is approximately $2.23 (TipRanks) to $2.27 (ChartMill). Qualcomm benefits from (1) smartphone market recovery driven by AI on-device features (Snapdragon 8 Elite), (2) growing Snapdragon X Series PC shipments, and (3) the automotive segment as a new growth driver. The guidance range signals management confidence in meeting consensus. Historically Qualcomm has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 9 of the last 12 quarters. No direct prediction market anchor available.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft reports Q4 FY2026 on July 29 (after close). Azure has delivered consistent 33–35% YoY growth over the past six quarters, driven by AI workloads (Copilot, Azure OpenAI) and enterprise migration. Our 30% threshold sits below recent trajectory; analysts broadly expect Intelligent Cloud segment revenue (primary driver: Azure) growth of ~32–35% YoY in Q4 FY2026. Even a moderate deceleration vs. Q3 still exceeds the threshold. The existing open EPS prediction ($4.04 Non-GAAP) covers overall performance; this prediction specifically measures Azure cloud growth.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 93% probability of an MSFT beat on adjusted EPS of $4.21. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus in 17 of the last 18 quarters; Q3 FY2026 delivered $4.27 vs. $4.06 expected. Azure Cloud growth (separate open prediction: >30% YoY), GitHub Copilot monetization, and Azure OpenAI services drive earnings. Revenue consensus: ~$86.7B. The market prices a very high beat probability as MSFT structurally benefits from AI infrastructure investment.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 on July 29 after market close. Consensus: approx. USD 1.40 Non-GAAP EPS — a sharp decline vs. USD 2.29 a year ago (mobile market dynamics, elevated chip inventories). Qualcomm has historically beaten EPS consensus in ~75% of quarters. Edge-AI chips (Snapdragon X Elite for PCs) could be a positive surprise. Headwinds: Arm licensing negotiations, weak China smartphone demand. No Polymarket market found.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Azure has reported 29–35% YoY growth in each of the last five consecutive quarters. In Q3 FY2026 (reported April 2026) Azure grew approx. 33% YoY. Microsoft guided Q4 FY2026 Intelligent Cloud at USD 28.6–29.9 billion, implying ~30%+ YoY. Strong AI services demand (Azure AI, Copilot) and data-center capacity expansions underpin the trend. The open Cassandra prediction covers only overall adjusted EPS (USD 4.21); the Azure segment growth rate is a separate disclosed metric. No Polymarket contract for this metric; base rate from 5-quarter trend approx. 76%.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood guided Q4 FY2026 revenue at ~$87B midpoint. EPS consensus is $4.21–4.24 (+YoY). Microsoft benefits from accelerating Azure AI revenue (existing platform prediction: >30% growth), Copilot enterprise monetisation, and strong cloud margins. The company has beaten EPS consensus for six consecutive quarters. No structural downside risks known.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm beat EPS consensus in Q1 FY2026 ($3.50 vs. $3.40) and Q2 FY2026 ($2.65 vs. $2.55). Snapdragon 8 Elite volumes remain strong; on-device AI demand lifts chip ASPs. The $1.53 consensus reflects seasonality and the Apple modem loss but appears conservative. No Polymarket market available; historical beat rate (~80%) is the primary calibration anchor.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Microsoft reports Q4 FY2026 on July 29, 2026. Intelligent Cloud posted ~$26.8B revenue in Q3 FY2026 (Jan–Mar 2026) at ~33–34% YoY growth. AI capacity expansions (Copilot, Azure OpenAI) drive further acceleration. Alphabet (Google Cloud) also beat expectations significantly in Q2 2026 (EPS $9.11, reported July 22). No Polymarket contract; analysis based on Azure growth trajectory. Complements the separate open MSFT EPS forecast (~$3.50).
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports fiscal Q3 FY2026 (April–June 2026) on July 29. The Zacks consensus is $2.22–$2.23 non-GAAP EPS, a -19.9% YoY decline on revenue consensus of $9.68B. The decline reflects handset weakness due to US tariffs. However, Qualcomm employs conservative guidance mechanics and has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of the last 10 quarters. Snapdragon demand stabilization via AI handsets may enable a guidance beat. Own calibration: 60%.