💻 Technology · Next Week

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats Q4-FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$4.04 per share (July 29, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

82%

MSFT has beaten EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters (MarketBeat). Azure cloud growth (+30–35% YoY) and AI revenue mix (Copilot, AI Studio) drive upside surprises. Q4-FY2026 consensus: ~$4.04 (range $3.59–$4.37, +15% YoY vs. $3.65 Q4 FY2025); revenue consensus ~$87.6B. Results after market close July 29. No direct Polymarket signal.

Data basis for this prediction

NASDAQ MSFT Earnings: Konsens $4,04, Reportdatum 29.07.2026
MarketBeat MSFT: 8 consecutive quarterly beats (Stand 19.07.2026)
StockTitan: Microsoft Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release Announcement
Yahoo Finance MSFT Preview: Revenue-Konsens $87,61 Mrd.

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Microsoft meldete für Q4 FY2026 (29. Juli 2026) einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD – deutlich über dem in der Vorhersage genannten Konsens von ~4,04 USD (tatsächlicher Analystenkonsens lag bei ~4,24 USD). Das entspricht einer Übertrefffung um ca. 12 %. Triebkräfte: Azure-Wachstum von 43 % YoY (übertraf selbst die ~40 %-Erwartung), AI-Umsatz, sowie ein einmaliger Buchgewinn von 3,2 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung. Umsatz: 90,0 Mrd. USD vs. Konsens 87,6 Mrd. USD. Quelle: Microsoft Investor Relations / CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/microsoft-msft-q4-earnings-report-2026.html), Tickeron (https://tickeron.com/earnings/MSFT/)

Related Predictions

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Nintendo Switch 2: Cumulative global sales exceed 28 million units by 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Nintendo quarterly report or Bloomberg by 31 January 2027)

The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.

52%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Apple officially announces new MacBook Pro models with M5 chip at October 2026 event (market launch by October 31, 2026, confirmed by Apple press release or The Verge by October 31, 2026)

Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.

68%

Next Month · Predicted for 31. Oct 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Samsung officially announces Galaxy AI Smart Glasses (Intelligent Eyewear with integrated AR display) by October 31, 2026 with a concrete market launch date (confirmed by Samsung press release or The Verge by October 31, 2026)

Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.

46%

Next Month · Predicted for 31. Oct 2026