Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) beats Q3 FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.53 per share on 29 July 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June) on 29 July 2026. Consensus stands at USD 1.53 adjusted EPS (Yahoo Finance/Investing.com) — a steep YoY decline from USD 2.29 driven primarily by tariff and export-control headwinds. However, robust AI chip growth in smartphones (Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 2) and a strong automotive chip segment (+50% YoY recently) work against the pessimistic consensus. Qualcomm's historical beat rate is ~75% (4 trailing quarters). The QTL licensing business shows structurally stable margins. No Polymarket data available; probability based on beat rate and segment trends.
Data basis for this prediction
- Yahoo Finance QCOM Q3 FY2026 Konsens: $1,53 USD EPS (13.07.2026)
- Investing.com QCOM Earnings Date: 29. Juli 2026 (13.07.2026)
- Yahoo Finance: Qualcomm Q3 2026 Earnings – What to Expect (12.07.2026)
- Qualcomm Automotive-Segment +50 % YoY; Beat-Rate ~75 % (Zacks Trailing 4Q)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Qualcomm berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 ein bereinigtes (Non-GAAP) EPS von 2,21 USD – was zwar den in der Vorhersage genannten Konsens von 1,53 USD weit übersteigt, jedoch den tatsächlichen Analysten-Konsens zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung von ca. 2,22–2,23 USD knapp verfehlte. Der Konsensschätzung von 1,53 USD lag somit ein erheblicher Fehler zugrunde (möglicherweise veraltete oder falsche Daten); der echte Markterwartungswert lag rund 45 % höher. Qualcomm schlug zwar beim Umsatz (9,95 Mrd. USD vs. erwartet ~9,67 Mrd.), verfehlte aber das bereinigte EPS. Der Kernfehler der Vorhersage war der stark unterschätzte Konsens. Quellen: Shacknews (https://www.shacknews.com/article/150195/qualcomm-qcom-q3-2026-earnings-results), Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-qualcomm-q3-2026-beats-revenue-but-shares-slide-93CH-4821887), KuCoin (https://www.kucoin.com/blog/qualcomm-q3-2026-earnings).
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.