💻 Technology · Next Week

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) beats Q4 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$4.21 (July 29, 2026, after market close)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

Polymarket sees 93% probability of an MSFT beat on adjusted EPS of $4.21. Microsoft has beaten EPS consensus in 17 of the last 18 quarters; Q3 FY2026 delivered $4.27 vs. $4.06 expected. Azure Cloud growth (separate open prediction: >30% YoY), GitHub Copilot monetization, and Azure OpenAI services drive earnings. Revenue consensus: ~$86.7B. The market prices a very high beat probability as MSFT structurally benefits from AI infrastructure investment.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket MSFT Q4 FY2026 EPS-Beat: 93 % (Stand 21.07.2026)
MSFT Konsens-EPS Q4 FY2026: $4,21; Umsatz $86,7 Mrd. (Yahoo Finance, 21.07.2026)
MSFT Q3 FY2026: $4,27 vs. $4,06 Konsens; Beat in 17/18 Quartalen (StockTitan/MarketBeat)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Microsoft meldete am 29. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 4,74 USD – deutlich über dem Konsensziel von ca. 4,21–4,24 USD (Beat von ~12 %). Auch der Umsatz übertraf mit 90,01 Mrd. USD die erwarteten ~87,6 Mrd. USD. Wesentliche Treiber waren das Intelligent-Cloud-Segment (39,31 Mrd. USD, Azure +43 % YoY), ein 3,2-Mrd.-USD-Gewinn aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung sowie geringere Kosten aus dem freiwilligen Vorruhestandsprogramm. Quellen: Microsoft IR Press Release (news.microsoft.com, 29.07.2026), CNBC MSFT Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Yahoo Finance / Zacks.

Related Predictions

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) beats Q4 FY2026 EPS consensus of $4.06 per share — earnings report November 12, 2026 after market close (confirmed by Applied Materials Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 13, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 12. Nov 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026

💻 Technology ✦ AI

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026