📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The BEA advance estimate for Q2 2026 showed 1.5% annualized growth (BEA, July 2026). The second estimate (due August 26 with corporate profits data) historically deviates by less than 0.4pp from the advance; significant downward revisions below 1.0% are rare (< 15% of cases since 1990). US consumption remained robust in spring 2026; the main risk is a negative revision from inventory changes. No prediction market explicitly covers this threshold; based on historical BEA revision patterns, I estimate 63% probability the second estimate lands at ≥ 1.5%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The latest available poll (Pollytix/Campact, 12 August 2026) shows AfD in Saxony-Anhalt at 43%; Infratest dimap (30 July 2026) confirms similar figures. The 40% threshold is 3 percentage points below current polling — an error of this magnitude favoring other parties would be historically unprecedented in Saxony-Anhalt. Eastern German polls tend to underestimate the AfD (reverse Bradley effect). CDU sits at 22%, Die Linke at 13%, SPD at 7% — no rival party approaches 40%. No prediction market explicitly prices this threshold; estimated probability: 72%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The most recent INSA poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (field period 4-11 August 2026, via Nordkurier/dawum.de) shows CDU at 10%. For CDU to fall below 5%, it would need to halve its current polling — an unprecedented collapse in this state. BSW (4%) and FDP (3%) are the realistic candidates to miss the threshold; CDU explicitly is not. CDU has always exceeded 10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2021: 28.8%; 2016: 19.0%). Estimated probability: 88%.
⚽ Sports
Hit
✦ AI
The Seahawks host the Patriots as home team and defending Super Bowl LX champions at Lumen Field, Seattle. In Super Bowl LX, Seattle beat New England convincingly 29-13. Bookmaker odds imply a ~68% Seahawks win probability (moneyline -210, as of 10 August 2026, per legalsportsbetting.com), confirmed by the -3.5 to -4 point spread. Home advantage, defending champion status, and recent head-to-head all favor Seattle. The Patriots have structural weaknesses since key departures; this is the first Wednesday NFL opener since 2012. Probability: 68% (market-aligned).
🍾 Beverages
Hit
✦ AI
Campari Group reported organic net revenue growth of +2.7% in H1 2026 (Q1: +2.9%, Q2: +2.5%, RTTNews/Investing.com July 2026) and confirmed full-year guidance of ~3% organic growth. Unlike peers Pernod Ricard, Rémy Cointreau, and Brown-Forman, Campari benefits from strong aperitivo brands (Aperol, Campari) with above-average demand in Europe; US tariff impact was a modest $7m in H1. The Q3 update (typically October/November) should show ≥2% organic growth on current trajectory. No prediction market covers this specific event; probability: 62%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
NASDAQ closed at 26,289.71 (−1.33%) on 22 Aug as participants de-risked. Open predictions expect NVIDIA revenue >$95 bn, NVDA stock +>5% on 27 Aug; CrowdStrike non-GAAP EPS ≥$0.31 (+>5%); Salesforce revenue ≥$11.40 bn. A triple beat drives NVIDIA (~6–7% NASDAQ weight) +5% with sector spillover. The required +2.7% NASDAQ gain occurred in ~55–60% of comparable post-NVDA-beat days historically. Consistent with open predictions for S&P 500 >7,750 and >7,780 on 27/28 August.
⚽ Sports
Hit
✦ AI
The Bundesliga 2026/27 season starts 28 August 2026. Bayern Munich, reigning champions with 14 titles in 15 seasons, enter with Harry Kane as top striker. Bayern's historical Bundesliga matchday-1 win rate exceeds 78%. Round 1 runs 29–31 August; Bayern typically draw a manageable opener. Sole residual risk: early-season teething issues after a short pre-season. No prediction market price found.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
S&P 500 fell 0.69% to 7,691.76 on 22 Aug; pre-earnings nervousness likely pushed VIX to ~19–22. If NVIDIA, CrowdStrike and Salesforce beat expectations — as open predictions imply — an S&P 500 rally of ≥1% on 27 Aug is probable. Historically VIX falls below 18 in 62–68% of such earnings-relief rallies. Counter-risk: Jackson Hole opens 28 August (Warsh speech open) — participants may keep a small caution premium. Net directional impulse on 27 Aug: relief.
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Pogačar is the clear pre-race favourite. Per open predictions, he has already won stages 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 and leads the GC after stage 5 (27 Aug) — a historically dominant opening week. He is the only active rider to have won Tour and Giro in the same year (2024). Jonas Vingegaard (Visma), winner of stage 5, is the sole realistic GC challenger but has repeatedly lost direct duels to Pogačar. Bookmaker-implied probability >62% for Pogačar as overall winner. Risks: crash, illness, extreme weather in final week.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
In the snap parliamentary election of July 2024, the RN achieved ~33.2% in the first round — a historic high. Since then, immigration and purchasing power have consolidated as dominant issues; current polls show RN consistently at 32–36% voting intentions. The existing open prediction (Bardella will not become PM by October 2026) implies RN remains the largest force without forming a government — consistent with a first-round result >33% without an absolute majority. No Polymarket/Metaculus price found; estimate based on 2024 precedent and August 2026 poll consensus.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current seat projection (PolitPro.eu, August 2026): Socialdemokraterna 110 of 349 Riksdag seats = ~31.5% vote share. The open platform prediction that they become the largest single party is already open — >30% is a more specific quantitative threshold, independent of that. At current polling (31.5%), the value exceeds 30%, but with uncertainty: Swedish polls historically have ±2–3% margin of error. If SAP fell to 28–29%, they could still be largest party (if all others are smaller), but the 30% threshold would be missed. Based on current polling, probability ~55%.
⚽ Sports
Miss
✦ AI
Stage 7 finishes at Aramón Valdelinares ski resort: 9.8 km final climb (avg 5.9%), four categorized climbs, 3,597 m total elevation. Pogačar already won stages 1–4 and leads GC; Vingegaard took stage 5 (summit), Pedersen stage 6 (flat). A summit finish is classic Pogačar terrain. Implied bookmaker odds at comparable Vuelta summit finishes price him ~50–65%. No direct Polymarket market available.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Bloomberg and MacRumors consistently report that Apple plans to announce its first book-style foldable iPhone (~5.5-inch outer, ~7.8-inch inner crease-free display) at the September 2026 event — alongside iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo sees the market launch potentially slipping to Q4 2026, while Bloomberg expects the September announcement. Design has consolidated from an earlier clamshell prototype to a book format. Price rumors: starting at $2,000+. iPhone 18 (open prediction) and Apple Watch (open prediction) are separate — the Foldable is an additional new product category with no existing platform prediction.