🏛️ Politics · Next Month

French parliamentary election (first round, 13 September 2026): Rassemblement National (RN) wins more than 33.0% of votes cast (confirmed by French Interior Ministry or AFP)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

In the snap parliamentary election of July 2024, the RN achieved ~33.2% in the first round — a historic high. Since then, immigration and purchasing power have consolidated as dominant issues; current polls show RN consistently at 32–36% voting intentions. The existing open prediction (Bardella will not become PM by October 2026) implies RN remains the largest force without forming a government — consistent with a first-round result >33% without an absolute majority. No Polymarket/Metaculus price found; estimate based on 2024 precedent and August 2026 poll consensus.

Data basis for this prediction

Frankreich Parlamentswahl Juli 2024: RN Erststimmen ~33,2 % (Ministère de l'Intérieur, Jul 2024)
Umfragen-Aggregator Frankreich Aug 2026: RN Wahlabsichten 33–35 % (IFOP/Politico Poll of Polls)
Open Prediction: Bardella (RN) wird nicht PM bis 31. Okt 2026 (Cassandra) — kein Widerspruch
Le Monde Wahlumfragen-Übersicht: RN stärkste Einzelpartei (Aug 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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