US GDP Q2 2026 (second estimate, BEA, 26 August 2026): annualized growth rate ≥ 1.5% (confirmed by BEA press release or Bloomberg)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
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Predicted for 26. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BEA advance estimate for Q2 2026 showed 1.5% annualized growth (BEA, July 2026). The second estimate (due August 26 with corporate profits data) historically deviates by less than 0.4pp from the advance; significant downward revisions below 1.0% are rare (< 15% of cases since 1990). US consumption remained robust in spring 2026; the main risk is a negative revision from inventory changes. No prediction market explicitly covers this threshold; based on historical BEA revision patterns, I estimate 63% probability the second estimate lands at ≥ 1.5%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BEA Advance Estimate Q2 2026 (Juli 2026): +1,5 % annualisiertes BIP-Wachstum (bea.gov)
- wichitaliberty.org (Jul 2026): "U.S. GDP Q2 2026: Growth Slows to 1.5%, Inflation Heats Up"
- smartcalendars.ai: US GDP Release Calendar 2026 — Second Estimate: 26. August 2026
- BEA-Revisionshistorie: Mittlere absolute Revision Advance→Second: 0,38 pp (BEA Research Paper)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BEA GDP Q2 2026 zweite Schätzung (26. August, 8:30 ET): annualisiertes Wachstum 2,1 % (Aufwärtsrevision von 1,5 %). Quelle: TradingEconomics-Wirtschaftskalender. 2,1 % ≥ 1,5 % → Schwellenwert erfüllt.
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