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AB InBev reported Q1 2026 organic revenue growth of 5.8% and beer volume growth of 1.2% — the strongest volume increase in several quarters. Underlying EPS rose 20.8% to a record $0.97. Particularly strong: Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa, and Peru recorded record volume quarters. Non-alcoholic (+27% revenue) and Beyond Beer (+37%) support the premiumization portfolio. Key for Q2: the FIFA World Cup 2026 in North America (June/July) significantly boosted beer demand in key markets. No contradicting market signals found; probability derived from Q1 momentum and World Cup seasonal effect.
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Rémy Cointreau publishes its Q1 FY2026-27 sales update (April–June 2026) on July 29, 2026 at 9:00am. Full-year FY2026 (to March 31, 2026): revenue €935.3M (−5% reported / +0.2% organic), net profit −35.1%. Management guidance: 'return to sustainable organic growth' in FY2026-27, momentum 'to strengthen progressively.' Favourable base: Q1 FY2026 depressed by US importer destocking and Chinese cognac levies. Headwinds remain: strong euro, US tariffs. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for RCO Q1.
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Danone releases H1 2026 results on July 29, 2026 at 7:30 CEST. Q1 2026 LFL growth was +2.7% (volume/mix +1.5%, price +1.2%). Full-year guidance is +3–5% LFL. Exceeding 3.0% for H1 requires Q2 to outperform Q1 — likely driven by seasonal strength in Evian and Volvic (summer, FIFA World Cup), emerging market growth, and category momentum in water. No Polymarket market. The guidance floor of +3% and known dynamics make this threshold well within reach.
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Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff) reported a revenue decline of –4.0% YoY to $10.46 billion for H1 FY2026 (July–December 2025) – already below expectations. In FY2025 organic net sales fell approximately –1.4% YoY; the group issued multiple profit warnings in 2024–2025. Structural headwinds: spirits demand in North America (its largest single market) and Latin America is recovering slowly; the Hormuz conflict is dampening premium whisky demand in the Middle East (~7–8% of revenue); US import tariffs on British spirits (post-2025) are increasing margin pressure. No direct prediction market anchor; calibrated on H1 data and sector trend.
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Rémy Cointreau releases its Q1-FY2027 revenue on July 29, 2026 (07:30 CET) covering April–June 2026. After five quarters of organic decline, the company achieved a clear trend reversal in Q4 FY2025-26 (January–March 2026): +8.9% organic growth. For the full year FY2025-26, growth came in at +0.2%; management explicitly guided for a 'return to sustainable organic revenue growth in FY2026-27.' Countervailing risks: US import tariffs on European spirits (Trump 2026), persistent distribution inventory overhang, cognac normalization in China. Analogous to sector trends at Diageo (open prediction: decline) and Pernod Ricard (open prediction: decline), uncertainty remains; however, Rémy's specific Q4 acceleration and management guidance justify a 55% growth probability. No direct market available.
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Campari Group reported Q1 2026 organic revenue growth of +2.9% (total revenue €643M; reported -3.4% due to FX headwinds). Management confirmed a FY2026 organic growth target of +3%. The aperitif category (Campari, Aperol) remains structurally strong in Europe and North America; premiumization trend continues. H1 is likely to benefit from a favorable base effect in Q2 (weak Q2 2025). Risks: Whiskey and rum (-5% in Q1), Asia-Pacific structurally weak. Overall picture: Organic H1 growth above 1.5% is plausible given the Q1 level (+2.9%). No specific prediction market data available for Campari H1.
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Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Baileys, Tanqueray) is expected to report FY2026 annual results in late July 2026. FY2025 already saw an organic net sales decline of approx. −0.6% YoY – weighed down by destocking in North America, demand weakness in Latin America/Caribbean, and subdued EMEA growth. The global spirits destocking cycle continues in FY2026, confirmed by parallel data from Pernod Ricard, Brown-Forman, and Boston Beer. No direct Polymarket market for Diageo FY2026 found. Probability of a further organic decline: ~62%, supported by the sector-wide trend.
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Heineken typically publishes H1 results in the last week of July (H1 2025: July 28, 2025; H1 2023: July 31, 2023). The Q1 2026 trading update (April 23, 2026) already showed +2.8% organic net revenue growth, driven by premiumisation (Heineken® brand: +6.9%) and market-share gains in ~60% of all markets. Full-year guidance was confirmed: 2–6% organic EBIT BEIA growth. This distinguishes Heineken clearly from peers that are all reporting declines (Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Campari, Rémy Cointreau). Probability of >0% positive H1 growth is high (80%); a decline would represent a significant trend reversal versus Q1. No prediction-market price available.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 results before market open on July 28. The company has beaten consensus estimates for 8 consecutive quarters. KO benefits from strong EM pricing power, growing premium portfolio (Fairlife, BODYARMOR), and structural cost savings. Consensus ~$0.88 (based on trend: Q2 2024 actual $0.84 adjusted, ~4–5% annual growth). Headwind: USD strength weighs on international revenues on translation. Beat rate over last 8 quarters per Marketbeat: >85%. No Polymarket market for KO EPS.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 on July 28 before NYSE open (6:30 am ET). EPS consensus is $0.92; revenue consensus ~$13.17B (Hudson Labs / TheMarketsDaily, as of July 21, 2026). KO has consistently beaten EPS consensus in the last twelve quarters, driven by global pricing power, volume recovery in emerging markets (Latin America, Asia-Pacific), and moderate input costs. Risk: FX headwind from a strong US dollar may weigh on reported EPS. No Polymarket market for this specific event.
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Coca-Cola has beaten EPS consensus in ~80% of the last eight quarters. Q2-2026 consensus is approx. $0.92 Non-GAAP EPS (+5.6% YoY, source: Yahoo Finance Earnings Preview 21 July 2026). KO benefits from strong pricing power in emerging markets, international volume growth, and a diversified portfolio. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found. Estimate of 73% = ~80% historical beat rate discounted for tariff and commodity risks.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 before market open on 28 July. Zacks consensus: $0.92 EPS (+5.6% YoY), revenue consensus $13.1bn (+4.2% YoY). The company delivered positive EPS surprises in each of the last 12 quarters; trailing four-quarter average surprise was +4.5%. Strong pricing power in emerging markets, continued foodservice volume growth, and portfolio premiumisation (energy drinks, premium water, alcoholic RTDs) add incremental margin. Zacks Earnings ESP is 0.00% (neutral signal), but surprise history dominates.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 figures on July 28, 2026 before market open. Jefferies expects 3.9% organic growth (above consensus 3.5%), EPS $0.94 (+8.5% YoY). Full-year 2026 guidance is +4–5% organic. Context: PepsiCo NA Beverages -4% in Q2 (results July 9), but KO benefits more from EM pricing and premiumization (Fairlife, Gold Peak RTD). Above-3.5% growth requires no acceleration vs. guidance midpoint. No Polymarket/Kalshi direct quote.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 on 28 July 2026 before market open. Analyst consensus: $0.93 adjusted EPS (Barchart/MarketBeat, July 2026; range $0.92–$0.94). In Q1 2026, Coca-Cola beat consensus by ~13%, confirming the company's historically high beat rate (>75% of quarters). The separately captured organic revenue growth >3.5% signals pricing strength supporting earnings. Analysts highlight 'resilient demand' (Proactive Investors). This prediction is substantively separate from the existing organic-growth prediction. No Polymarket signal for KO Q2 EPS.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 results July 28. The existing prediction covers only the adjusted EPS beat ($0.93); organic revenue growth is a separate KPI. KO has targeted mid-single-digit organic revenue growth (+4–6% p.a.). Positive Q2 drivers: strong international demand (India, Africa, LatAm), prior-year price increases, premiumization. Falling below 3% would signal a significant structural deceleration.
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LVMH's Wines & Spirits segment (Moët & Chandon, Veuve Clicquot, Dom Pérignon, Hennessy) suffered steep declines in 2024 and H1 2025: China imposed anti-dumping duties on EU cognac (primary driver for Hennessy), while champagne volumes normalized post-Covid-boom. Following the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit and trade framework agreements, Chinese luxury consumption is gradually recovering — but the EU-China cognac dispute is partly separate from US-China trade. LVMH H1 2026 results expected ~July 27–28, 2026 (TipRanks/Investing.com). Bloomberg consensus places Moët Hennessy near flat to slightly positive for H1 2026; >3% is above-consensus. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found. Cautious estimate: 42%.
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Coca-Cola reports Q2 2026 results on July 28, 2026 (pre-market). The company reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of 4–5% organic revenue growth (Coca-Cola IR, Q1 2026 update). Analyst Jefferies lowered its Q2 concentrate volume growth estimate to 1.6%, signalling modest volume headwinds – but price/mix effects should be sufficient to clear the 3% threshold. Proactiveinvestors projects 'solid second-quarter results' backed by resilient demand. In Q2 2025 organic growth was ~2%; pricing actions and improved mix in 2026 make a return above 3% plausible. No Polymarket market available; own estimate: 50%.
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LVMH presents H1 2026 results on 27 July 2026. The Wines & Spirits division (Hennessy, Moët & Chandon, Dom Pérignon, Veuve Clicquot, etc.) was a group growth driver in Q1 2026. Hennessy is gradually recovering from China softness and US tariff pressure; Champagne brands benefit from the FIFA World Cup 2026 as an event catalyst and premiumisation in celebration occasions. Headwinds: US import tariffs on European spirits (10–20%), structural alcohol decline in certain markets. No Polymarket/Kalshi signal.
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LVMH will report H1 2026 results on 27 July 2026 (lvmh.com Financial Calendar). In Q1 2026, the Wines & Spirits division achieved +5% organic growth (Champagne +5%, Cognac & Spirits +5%), the strongest quarter since 2022 per eciks.org. The 3% threshold sits comfortably below Q1 performance. Risks for Q2: continued China softness in the cognac market, US consumer headwinds from tariffs, FX drag from a stronger EUR. No Polymarket market available; threshold set conservatively.
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LVMH's Wines & Spirits segment (Moët Hennessy) posted organic revenue decline of approx. 9% in H1 2025, severely hit by collapsed Cognac exports to China and a subdued US market. Three factors favour a recovery in H1 2026: (1) the H1 2025 comparison base is depressed; (2) Chinese consumer spending is stabilising (China GDP growth ~4.5% in 2026); (3) premiumisation effects in Asia ex-China (Japan, India, South-East Asia). LVMH H1 2026 results for Fashion & Leather (<0% organic) are tracked separately as an open prediction. No direct market anchor for the W&S segment found; probability based on analyst consensus (Bloomberg/LSEG expects mild Cognac-segment recovery).