🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Rémy Cointreau publishes its Q1 FY2026-27 sales update (April–June 2026) on July 29, 2026 at 9:00am. Full-year FY2026 (to March 31, 2026): revenue €935.3M (−5% reported / +0.2% organic), net profit −35.1%. Management guidance: 'return to sustainable organic growth' in FY2026-27, momentum 'to strengthen progressively.' Favourable base: Q1 FY2026 depressed by US importer destocking and Chinese cognac levies. Headwinds remain: strong euro, US tariffs. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for RCO Q1.
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Molson Coors reports Q2 2026 on August 4, 2026. Analyst EPS consensus: $1.77; full-year EPS target: $4.74. Q1 2026 was a massive beat (+72%: $0.62 vs. $0.36 expected). Q2 is seasonally North America's strongest beer quarter. Drivers: first consolidation of Monaco Cocktails (RTD growth), Horizon 2030 cost savings, FIFA 2026 World Cup volume effects for Coors Light and Miller Lite in North America. Headwind: premium spirits weakness. Beat probability moderate as consensus was adjusted post-Q1 surprise. No Kalshi/Polymarket quote.
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Fever-Tree traded between 775p and 840p on July 10/11, 2026 (52-week low: 711p, high: 1,020p). FY2025 revenue: £325M (−11.8%). Analyst consensus target: 942p (+16.8% above recent close). H1 2026 results due September 15, 2026; few catalysts before then. The 750p threshold is 3–10% below the current trading range. Premium mixer segment benefits from cocktail trend and summer season. No Polymarket/Kalshi quote for FEVR.
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LME aluminium spot closed at $3,138.5/t on July 11, 2026 (open $3,140, range $3,125.5–$3,165). LME stocks fell below 300,000 t — first time since 2022 — tightening physical supply. Aluminium is the key raw material for beverage cans; producers like Ball Corporation and Crown Holdings are directly exposed. The $3,100 threshold is 1.2% below current price; breach is possible but not the base case given supply tightness. No Polymarket quote for LME-Al.
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Brown-Forman reports Q1 FY2027 results (May–July 2026) on August 27, 2026. Management guides FY2027 organic net sales 'approximately flat' and organic EBIT −3 to −5%. Q1 FY2026 (May–July 2025) was +1% organic. Tailwinds: completed US distributor restructuring, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry launch, global diversification. Headwinds: US spirits import tariffs, weaker premium spirits demand in UK/US. The '≤2% decline' threshold is well below management guidance of 'flat', allowing room for moderate disappointment. No Polymarket/Kalshi quote.
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✦ AI
Molson Coors traded at approximately $39.27 on July 7/8, 2026. Q1 2026 was a massive beat (EPS $0.62 vs. $0.36 expected, +72%). Underlying EPS +24%, pretax income +16.2%. Q2 results due August 4, consensus EPS $1.77. Drivers: Horizon 2030 restructuring, Monaco Cocktails (RTD) acquisition, strong North American summer beer season. $38 threshold = 3.3% buffer to last known price. No Polymarket quote.
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✦ AI
Constellation Brands traded at $132.44 on July 9, 2026, following Q1 FY2027 results on June 30 with EPS of $3.43 vs. $3.21 expected (+6.9%). Beer grew 2% organically, wine/spirits 8%; operating margin +120bp to 34.3%. Analyst consensus: 18× buy, target $176. The $129 threshold is 2.6% below the last known price. No Polymarket/Kalshi quote for STZ.
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✦ AI
CELH closed at USD 30.62 on July 10, 2026. Q1 2026 record revenue: USD 782.6 million (+138% YoY) through full consolidation of Alani Nu (USD 368 million) and Rockstar (since August 2025). Q2 analyst consensus: ~USD 910 million; results due August 11, 2026. Threshold 28.50 = −6.9% below Friday's close. No Polymarket/Kalshi market for CELH found. Strong fundamentals and pre-earnings uptrend support the prediction.
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KDP closed at USD 31.62 on July 10, 2026 (+30.8% in 3 months). Q1 2026: net sales USD 4.0 billion (+9.4% YoY); full-year guidance USD 25.9–26.4 billion (including full JDE Peet's consolidation from Q2; deal closed April 1, 2026). Next earnings: August 6, 2026. Threshold 30.50 = −3.5% from current price; reversing the ongoing uptrend without a negative catalyst this week appears unlikely. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found.
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✦ AI
PEP closed at USD 137.38 on July 10, 2026. Mixed Q2 2026 results (July 9) showed total organic growth +2.4% but PepsiCo Beverages North America volume −4%. The 52-week low is USD 133.63 — a strong technical support zone. Threshold 134.50 = −2.1% from current price, just above the 52-week low. 12M consensus target: ~USD 156. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found. Breaking the 52-week low this week without additional negative newsflow appears unlikely.
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CCU26 is at USD 6,057/t on July 10, 2026. Threshold 5,400 implies −10.8% over a full trading week. El Niño supply risks (West Africa, 2026/27 crop −18%) and structurally thin global supply support prices. Counterweights: ICE inventory near 2-year high and elevated cumulative Côte d'Ivoire port deliveries (+21% YoY). The weekly buffer of −10.8% makes this more likely to hold than the Monday threshold. No Polymarket/Kalshi market available.
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✦ AI
CCU26 closed at USD 6,057/t on July 10, 2026 (−6.04% from the recent 6-month high ~6,447). El Niño supply risks for Côte d'Ivoire 2026/27 (StoneX estimate: 1.8 MMT, −18% YoY) and structurally thin stocks support prices. Headwinds: ICE inventory near a 2-year high (~3.15 million bags) and cumulative Côte d'Ivoire port deliveries +21% YoY. Threshold 5,700 = −5.9% vs. Friday close — a moderate buffer for one trading day (Monday July 14) given daily volatility of ~4–6%. No Polymarket/Kalshi market available.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Celsius grew 85.5% in 2025 to USD 2.515 billion through Alani Nu (April 2025) and Rockstar (August 2025) acquisitions. Q1 2026: USD 782.6 million; Q2 consensus: ~USD 910 million → projected H1 ≈ USD 1.69 billion. To reach USD 3.0 billion full-year, H2 must contribute ~USD 1.31 billion (avg. ~USD 655 million/quarter) — ~28% below Q2 consensus, consistent with typical Q3/Q4 seasonal softness. Full Alani Nu integration into PepsiCo's distribution and 21% US energy-drink market share support the thesis. No Polymarket/Kalshi market available.