📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Fed futures markets imply 74.9% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%; 25.1% for a 25bp hike; 0% for a cut (early July 2026). Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (in office since 17 June 2026), core PCE inflation stands at 3.4% YoY, CPI at 4.2% YoY — well above the 2% target. The FOMC's median year-end 2026 projection has been raised to 3.8%; nine of 18 officials project at least one hike. Polymarket prices 0% chance of a July cut.
🍾 Beverages
Hit
✦ AI
Campari reported Q1 2026 (6 May 2026) organic growth of +2.9% — broad-based across 18 growth markets with strength across all brand houses (Campari, Aperol, Grand Marnier, Espolòn). Full-year guidance of ~3% organic growth (in line with 2025 pace) was reiterated. Falling below 2.5% in H1 would require a substantial Q2 deterioration vs. Q1. H1 results are typically published late July/early August. No Polymarket market available; own estimate ~60%.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
The Samsung Galaxy Ring (Gen 1) launched in July 2024 — a two-year product cycle would align squarely with Unpacked 2026. The same event is expected to feature Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra, Z Flip 8, and 'Intelligent Eyewear' (per open platform predictions); Unpacked is traditionally Samsung's flagship hardware stage. Samsung has established Ring as a standalone health segment, actively competing with Apple Watch and Oura Ring. Risk: possible delay to a separate health event or Samsung Developer Conference. Own estimate ~45%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
GBP/USD trades at 1.3390 on July 13, 2026. Andy Burnham is on the verge of appointment as UK Prime Minister – he commands 322 of 403 Labour MPs (as of July 9, 2026), is the sole candidate, and could be formally appointed before July 20. A leadership transition to a pragmatic, popular new PM is often accompanied by a brief GBP rally. Arguments for 1.3500 (+0.8% in 18 days): strong UK services sector, BoE expected to hold at 3.75% (no surprise). Risk: Iran crisis raises UK energy import costs and weighs on the trade balance.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 results (April–June 2026 quarter) on July 30, 2026. Consensus EPS is ~$1.88–1.89 per share (+19.8% YoY vs. $1.57), per Yahoo Finance and 9to5Mac. Apple has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 11 of the last 12 quarters (historical beat rate ~75–80%). Supporting factors: strong services growth (Apple Intelligence subscriptions, App Store, iCloud+), iPhone 17 cycle, gradual China market normalization. AAPL currently trades at ~$315.32 (Yahoo Finance, July 13, 2026). No Polymarket market for AAPL Q3 FY2026 EPS found; historical beat rate implies ~73% probability.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.25% on 11 June 2026. The July meeting (23 July, 13:45 CET) is a non-projection meeting — no updated staff projections, and the Governing Council historically uses such meetings to absorb signals. The OIS market prices a ~88% probability of a hold (Finance Calendar, as of 13 July 2026). Eurozone annual inflation is projected at ~3.0% for 2026 (ECB forecast), above target; Lagarde has signalled patience for further data. Only ~12% of market pricing bets on another move.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 7-2 MPC vote on 18 June 2026. For the 30 July meeting, SONIA futures price a 90.7% probability of a hold (centralbank.watch, as of 13 July 2026). A rate cut is priced at ~0%. Supporting factors: UK CPI remains well above 2.0% (open Cassandra prediction: UK CPI above 2.7% YoY by 22 July); weak retail data dampens consumption expectations but does not justify easing. The MPC awaits further evidence on wage inflation and services prices.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
Qualcomm reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June) on 29 July 2026. Consensus stands at USD 1.53 adjusted EPS (Yahoo Finance/Investing.com) — a steep YoY decline from USD 2.29 driven primarily by tariff and export-control headwinds. However, robust AI chip growth in smartphones (Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 2) and a strong automotive chip segment (+50% YoY recently) work against the pessimistic consensus. Qualcomm's historical beat rate is ~75% (4 trailing quarters). The QTL licensing business shows structurally stable margins. No Polymarket data available; probability based on beat rate and segment trends.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest since 1995. InvestingLive and analyst consensus show the BoJ will hold at its July meeting (July 30–31) and reaffirm its gradual tightening path. Context: Following the July 20 Sangiin election (LDP lost majority in both chambers for the first time since 1955), political instability counsels BoJ caution. USD/JPY stood at 161.68 on July 13 — yen depreciation pressure argues for gradual hikes but not imminent ones. Analyst consensus: hold in July, possible further hike to 1.25% by October 2026 (separate open prediction).
⚽ Sports
Hit
✦ AI
Evenepoel sits 4th in the GC after Stage 9 (rest day July 13), 3:30 behind Pogačar. As reigning World ITT Champion, Stage 16's individual time trial (Évian–Thonon-les-Bains, 26.1 km, July 21) offers him significant potential to recover time or even move to 2nd (an existing open prediction sees him winning that stage). His current deficits to Vingegaard (2nd, +2:42) and del Toro (3rd, +3:27) are non-trivial to overcome in the remaining Alpine stages (14, 15, 18, 19), where he is relatively weaker in high-altitude summit finishes. Risk: losing more than 1 minute to current 5th/6th-placed riders in the remaining mountain stages.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Meta reports on July 29, 2026, after market close. The adjusted EPS consensus per MarketBeat and TipRanks stands at approx. USD 7.18 per share; revenue consensus is ~USD 60.18 bn (guidance: USD 58–61 bn). Meta beat the EPS consensus in each of the past four quarters. Drivers: AI-powered ad monetisation (Meta Advantage+), growing Instagram/WhatsApp user base, Llama-4-based B2B AI services, and declining infrastructure costs per user. No Polymarket equivalent for EPS beat; historical beat rate (~80%) supports the expectation.
💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q1-FY2027 results (April–June 2026) on July 29, 2026, after market close; the normalised EPS consensus per MarketBeat/Nasdaq stands at USD 0.40 per ADS; revenue consensus is ~USD 1.26 bn. ARM benefits massively from the AI chip boom: each new Nvidia Blackwell, Qualcomm Snapdragon X, and Apple M-series chip uses ARM v9 cores and pays higher royalties. In the last four quarters, ARM exceeded the normalised EPS consensus each time. No Polymarket equivalent; historical beat rate and AI chip demand support the expectation.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Amazon reports on July 30, 2026, after market close; adjusted EPS consensus is ~USD 1.82 per share, revenue consensus ~USD 196 bn (MarketBeat, July 13, 2026). Amazon beat the EPS consensus in seven of the last eight quarters. AWS remains the margin driver with strong growth from AI infrastructure requests; the Advertising segment grows >20% YoY. Prime Day Q3 is not included, but spring effects and cost discipline support margins. No Polymarket equivalent for Amazon EPS beat.