Bank of Japan Holds Policy Rate Unchanged at 1.00% at the July 30–31, 2026 Meeting
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest since 1995. InvestingLive and analyst consensus show the BoJ will hold at its July meeting (July 30–31) and reaffirm its gradual tightening path. Context: Following the July 20 Sangiin election (LDP lost majority in both chambers for the first time since 1955), political instability counsels BoJ caution. USD/JPY stood at 161.68 on July 13 — yen depreciation pressure argues for gradual hikes but not imminent ones. Analyst consensus: hold in July, possible further hike to 1.25% by October 2026 (separate open prediction).
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: 'Bank of Japan hikes to 1%, highest since 1995' (16. Juni 2026)
- InvestingLive: 'Bank of Japan set to keep rates unchanged at July meeting, maintain tightening guidance' (Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- USD/JPY: 161,68 (Montag-Asien-Session, 13. Juli 2026)
- CSIS: 'Japan's Upper House Election – Prolonged Instability' – LDP verliert Mehrheit in beiden Kammern (Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Bank of Japan hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 1,00 % (8:1-Abstimmung, einzig Hajime Takata votierte für eine Erhöhung auf 1,25 %). Das Ergebnis entsprach dem Konsens aller 52 von Bloomberg befragten Ökonomen. Die BoJ bestätigte die Forward Guidance für weitere graduelle Erhöhungen und warnte, dass die Kerninflation ab September 2026 'deutlich über' 2 % steigen dürfte. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/boj-rates-yen-intervention-inflation-japan.html), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/).
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