The Neutrality Initiative would constitutionally enshrine perpetual armed neutrality and bar sanctions on belligerents. Current polls show 62% against; the Federal Council recommends No. Historically, Swiss referendums follow Federal Council recommendations in ~78–82% of cases.
The USA have historically dominated the Presidents Cup since its founding in 1994: 12 wins, 1 tie (2003), only 2 losses (1998, 2003) from 15 editions. Medinah Country Club (Illinois) is historically strong US home turf. The 2026 US roster is expected to include Scottie Scheffler (current world No. 1), Xander Schauffele and further top players. The International Team, despite growing talent (Japan, South Africa, Australia), has never won outside the USA. Bookmaker odds imply ~75% for the USA. Own estimate: 76%.
On September 27, 2026, 178 of 348 Senate seats are renewed by indirect vote (elected by local politicians). Les Républicains (LR) and Union centriste currently hold ~189 seats — a comfortable absolute majority. Since the electoral college consists of mayors and local councillors who are traditionally conservative, the system structurally favors the right/centre-right. The last left-wing Senate majority was 2011–2014 (3 years only). No Polymarket market available. Main risk: if Macron's Renaissance party and the left form a joint list and benefit from favorable local dynamics — historically unlikely. The NUPES coalition broke apart in 2024 and has not reformed.
The SVP-backed initiative would enshrine permanently-armed neutrality in the Swiss constitution and prohibit any military alliance. The first poll (SWI swissinfo.ch, August 2026) shows 54–62% intending to vote NO. The Federal Council and Parliament both recommend rejection. Historically, initiatives with such weak first polling fail in Switzerland in over 75% of cases. No direct prediction market found; calibrated on Swissinfo first poll and historical base rate.
The UNGA high-level week (Sept 22–26) reliably spurs UNSC action on active conflicts. The US has vetoed multiple Gaza-related UNSC resolutions since Oct 2023, a pattern consistent through 2025. Ongoing IDF operations in Lebanon (per open predictions) and US domestic political dynamics ahead of November midterms reinforce the veto pattern. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found. Own estimate: 68%.
The French Senate election on September 27, 2026 is an indirect vote by grands électeurs (local elected officials), renewing 178 of 348 seats. RN polls at roughly 35% of national voting intention. Decisive, however, is the electoral college structure: the indirect system strongly favours parties with deep, established local roots (Républicains, PS). In the last Senate election in 2023, RN grew from 2 to 22 seats — a large jump, but from an extremely low base. While RN made gains in the March 2026 municipal elections, these new officeholders only took up their grands électeurs roles in March 2026 and have yet to build mature local campaign infrastructure for the Senate race. No Polymarket signal available. We estimate 58% probability that RN wins fewer than 40 of the 178 contested seats.
In the 2026 Senate election, 178 of 348 seats will be renewed. RN currently lacks the minimum of 10 senators required to form its own parliamentary group. The 2026 municipal elections strengthened RN in several departments whose municipal councillors serve as Senate electors. Le Monde and Connexion France expect significant RN gains. The existing open prediction ('Conservatives retain absolute majority') is consistent with this forecast, as an RN group does not eliminate the conservative majority. No direct prediction market; political polls and municipal election results support approximately 55%.
178 of 348 Senate seats are contested on September 27. RN holds only 3 seats despite being the largest party in the National Assembly. The open platform prediction targets ≥10 seats. Senate elections via 87,000 grands électeurs (rural-overrepresented) structurally limit RN gains, but Connexion France confirms a parliamentary group (10+ seats) is possible following municipal council victories. More than 20 seats require significant inroads in mixed constituencies — ambitious but not excluded given RN's national strength. Calibrated conservatively without specific seat projection data.
Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 FIA Drivers' Championship by +59 points (as of post-Dutch GP, August 2026). Baku is a street circuit with high-speed sections that historically suit Mercedes setup strengths (low drag, tyre management). Lando Norris (McLaren) won the last two GPs and is the strongest rival, also favored at Monza (Sep 6). Antonelli needs race results to actively defend his title lead — Baku is a natural target event. Bookmaker odds not available; calibration based on driver form and track profile.
Spain won the FIFA U-20 Women's World Cup 2022 in Costa Rica and has the strongest youth system in Europe — the senior team triumphed in 2023 (Women's World Cup, Sydney) and 2024 (Olympic gold, Paris). The tournament runs September 5-27, 2026 in Poland (24 teams, group stage currently ongoing). Main rivals: USA (4x winner, last 2018), Germany (3x winner), Japan (winner 2018). No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this event; own probability distribution: Spain ~22%, USA ~16%, Germany ~12%, rest of field ~50%.