Swiss popular initiative 'Neutrality and Non-Interference' is rejected at the 27 September 2026 referendum (confirmed by the Federal Chancellery or SRF)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
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Predicted for 27. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The SVP-backed initiative would enshrine permanently-armed neutrality in the Swiss constitution and prohibit any military alliance. The first poll (SWI swissinfo.ch, August 2026) shows 54–62% intending to vote NO. The Federal Council and Parliament both recommend rejection. Historically, initiatives with such weak first polling fail in Switzerland in over 75% of cases. No direct prediction market found; calibrated on Swissinfo first poll and historical base rate.
Data basis for this prediction
- SWI swissinfo.ch: 'First poll for September 27 vote shows poor start for neutrality initiative' (Aug 2026): 54–62 % Nein
- IamExpat.ch: 'Switzerland votes on Neutrality and Food initiatives – September 2026'
- Bundeskanzlei admin.ch: Volksabstimmung 27. September 2026 (offiziell bestätigt)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.