USA vetoes at least one UN Security Council resolution on Gaza or Lebanon during the UNGA high-level week (Sept 22–26, 2026, confirmed by UN press service, Reuters or AFP by Sept 27, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 27. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The UNGA high-level week (Sept 22–26) reliably spurs UNSC action on active conflicts. The US has vetoed multiple Gaza-related UNSC resolutions since Oct 2023, a pattern consistent through 2025. Ongoing IDF operations in Lebanon (per open predictions) and US domestic political dynamics ahead of November midterms reinforce the veto pattern. No specific Polymarket/Metaculus market found. Own estimate: 68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- UN Security Council: Veto record on Gaza/Lebanon resolutions Oct 2023–Aug 2026
- The National News: UNGA 2026 agenda preview – US-Iran, Gaza, UN Secretary-General (1. September 2026)
- Reuters: US veto pattern UN Security Council 2024–2025
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Kein US-Veto auf eine Resolution zu Gaza oder Libanon während der UNGA-Hochrangwoche (22.–26. September 2026). Die USA legten vielmehr eigene Resolutionen zu Gaza (Trumps Plan) vor. Ein Veto durch China/Russland (Nichtverbreitungsresolution S/2026/740) erfolgte am 17. September – vor der UNGA-Woche und nicht durch die USA. Quelle: Al Jazeera 26.09.2026, Crisis Group UNGA-Updates
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.