FOMC November 2026 meeting (approx. 4–5 November 2026): Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by 5 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
An existing open prediction calls for the FOMC to hike to 3.75–4.00% at the 17 September 2026 meeting (Polymarket 79%, Kalshi 59%). After such a hike, the Fed historically tends to pause at the immediately following meeting to assess data and market reactions (pattern from 2022–2023 and 2025). The November meeting also falls on the day after the US Midterms (3 November 2026) — a politically awkward moment for further tightening. Goldman Sachs, per research data, does not expect any further hikes after September 2026. Counter-risk: US CPI October >3.0% (separate open prediction) could provide a signal for another hike.
Data basis for this prediction
- FOMC September 2026: +25bp auf 3,75–4,00 % – Polymarket 79 %, Kalshi 59 % (13. Sep. 2026)
- Goldman Sachs: keine weiteren Hikes nach Sep 2026 erwartet (Yahoo Finance / Fed Rate Calc)
- FOMC historisches Pause-Muster nach Hike-Zyklus (FedRateCalc.com)
- US Midterms 3. Nov. 2026: FOMC-Sitzung am Folgetag politisch sensitiv (Bloomberg-Analyse)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold was at approximately USD 4,350/oz on 11-12 September 2026. An existing open prediction implies a short-term pullback below 4,300 by 17 September (FOMC rate hike). Medium-term, several factors support recovery by year-end: Eurozone HICP inflation at 3.3% (August 2026), US PCE at 3.7% — both well above target. Geopolitical risks (Iran nuclear situation per IAEA open prediction, Russia-Ukraine) and structurally elevated central bank demand provide tailwinds. From a post-pullback level of ~4,280–4,300, a rise above 4,500 by 31 December (~+4.7–5.1%) is plausible. No direct Polymarket year-end gold market available; calibrated via gold market implied volatility (~18–20% annualised).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
An existing open prediction signals an ECB rate hike of 25 bps to 2.90% in December 2026. Central banks typically pause one meeting between consecutive rate steps to assess incoming data. The October 29 meeting is a non-projection session — the ECB prefers directional decisions at meetings with updated staff projections (December). OIS swap markets price an October hold probability at ~65-70%; the December path is considered consensus-priced.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bloomberg OIS swaps priced the hike probability at nearly 97% (as of September 12, 2026). A Reuters survey from September 10 found 66 of 68 economists expecting a raise to 1.25%. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino gave no indication of a pause. Current rate is 1.00% (raised June 2026); Governor Ueda repeatedly cited upside price risks and a robust labor market. USD/JPY near 153.5 — market has partially pre-priced JPY appreciation.