ECB Governing Council raises the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.90% on December 9, 2026 (ECB Governing Council meeting December 2026, confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by December 9, 2026)
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.65% on September 10, 2026. The next scheduled Governing Council meeting is December 9, 2026. Drivers for a further hike: persistently elevated energy prices (Brent >$104/barrel), eurozone core inflation structurally above 3%, USD strength from Fed hikes raising import price pressure. Counter-argument: economic slowdown in Germany and France could justify a pause. OIS swaps as of September 13 implied approximately 52% probability of a December hike. No existing Cassandra duplicate (FOMC and BoE decisions are covered; ECB December is not).
50%