ECB Governing Council raises the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.90% on December 9, 2026 (ECB Governing Council meeting December 2026, confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by December 9, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 9. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.65% on September 10, 2026. The next scheduled Governing Council meeting is December 9, 2026. Drivers for a further hike: persistently elevated energy prices (Brent >$104/barrel), eurozone core inflation structurally above 3%, USD strength from Fed hikes raising import price pressure. Counter-argument: economic slowdown in Germany and France could justify a pause. OIS swaps as of September 13 implied approximately 52% probability of a December hike. No existing Cassandra duplicate (FOMC and BoE decisions are covered; ECB December is not).
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB Pressemitteilung 10. September 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,65 % angehoben (ecb.europa.eu)
- Brent Rohöl (ICE Front-Month): 104,47 USD/Barrel am 13. September 2026 (Investing.com)
- Bloomberg OIS-Swaps EUR: ~52 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +25 Bp im Dezember 2026 (Stand 13. September 2026)
- EZB Sitzungskalender 2026: Nächste planmäßige Ratssitzung 9. Dezember 2026 (ecb.europa.eu)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket gives 46% probability for a year-end close above 8,000 points (September 13, 2026). Kalshi prices 72.8% probability that the index touches 8,000 at any point before year-end (touch vs. close distinction). Current level: 7,657 (September 12, 2026 close); a close above 8,000 requires a rise of ~+4.5%. Key headwind risks: restrictive Fed after September hike (target range 3.75-4.00%), Brent crude near $104, midterm uncertainty through November. Polymarket serves as primary probability anchor.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bloomberg OIS swaps priced the hike probability at nearly 97% (as of September 12, 2026). A Reuters survey from September 10 found 66 of 68 economists expecting a raise to 1.25%. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino gave no indication of a pause. Current rate is 1.00% (raised June 2026); Governor Ueda repeatedly cited upside price risks and a robust labor market. USD/JPY near 153.5 — market has partially pre-priced JPY appreciation.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
An existing open prediction signals an ECB rate hike of 25 bps to 2.90% in December 2026. Central banks typically pause one meeting between consecutive rate steps to assess incoming data. The October 29 meeting is a non-projection session — the ECB prefers directional decisions at meetings with updated staff projections (December). OIS swap markets price an October hold probability at ~65-70%; the December path is considered consensus-priced.