Monday, 26. October 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Argentina Midterm Elections (October 26, 2026): La Libertad Avanza (Milei) obtains more than 35.0% of national list votes (confirmed by Argentine Electoral Court by October 27, 2026)

In Argentina's midterm elections (renewing half the lower chamber and a third of the Senate), polling institutes (Giacobbe, Zuban Córdoba) show La Libertad Avanza at 38–42% nationally. Support is underpinned by INDEC reporting CPI at only +2.5% MoM for July 2026 (vs. >25% MoM in early 2024) and Milei's approval ratings of 55–58% per Clarín/La Nación. The 35.0% threshold lies clearly below the polling midpoint; even with a typical 5–10 pp midterm slippage, LLA would still exceed 35%. No prediction market covers this event.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 26. Oct 2026

⚽ Sports ✦ AI

Ballon d'Or 2026 (ceremony October 26, 2026, London): Harry Kane (ENG / FC Bayern Munich) wins the award

Harry Kane is the clear favorite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or (ceremony October 26, London). Oddschecker (aggregate): 4/7 odds imply ~64% win probability. Polymarket: 62% ($34M trading volume, as of September 10, 2026). Kane's 2025/26 season: 61 club goals for FC Bayern Munich (most of any player worldwide), Bundesliga title, DFB-Pokal, World Cup semi-final with England. Nearest challengers: Lamine Yamal (ESP) at 9/2 (~18%, Spain won World Cup), Rodri (ESP) 8/1, Kylian Mbappé (FRA) 8/1. The official shortlist has been published and Kane's record goal-scoring combined with team success is broadly recognized as the decisive criterion. No notable counterargument beyond Yamal's World Cup gold medal. Market probability ~63% adopted as anchor without deviation.

63%

Next Month · Predicted for 26. Oct 2026