Argentina Midterm Elections (October 26, 2026): La Libertad Avanza (Milei) obtains more than 35.0% of national list votes (confirmed by Argentine Electoral Court by October 27, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 26. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
In Argentina's midterm elections (renewing half the lower chamber and a third of the Senate), polling institutes (Giacobbe, Zuban Córdoba) show La Libertad Avanza at 38–42% nationally. Support is underpinned by INDEC reporting CPI at only +2.5% MoM for July 2026 (vs. >25% MoM in early 2024) and Milei's approval ratings of 55–58% per Clarín/La Nación. The 35.0% threshold lies clearly below the polling midpoint; even with a typical 5–10 pp midterm slippage, LLA would still exceed 35%. No prediction market covers this event.
Data basis for this prediction
- Encuestadora Giacobbe / Zuban Córdoba: LLA 38–42% nacional (Umfragen August 2026)
- INDEC: Argentinien CPI Juli 2026 +2,5% MoM (deutlicher Inflationsrückgang unter Milei)
- Clarín / La Nación: Milei-Popularität 55–58%, LLA-Rückenwind für Midterms (August 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] La Libertad Avanza erzielte ~40,8% der nationalen Listenstimmen bei den argentinischen Midterm-Wahlen am 26. Oktober 2025 — deutlich über der 35%-Schwelle. Die Verleihung des Ergebnisses war auf dieses Datum bezogen; bestätigt durch Buenos Aires Herald und Wikipedia (2025 Argentine legislative election).
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