FOMC December Meeting (Dec 16, 2026): Federal Reserve Hikes the Federal Funds Target Rate by 25bp to 4.00–4.25%
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Monetary policy trajectory: September hike to 3.75–4.00% at 78–81% probability (Polymarket/defirate.com aggregated); October hold per existing Cassandra prediction. For a December hike: US headline CPI August 2026 well above 3.0% YoY (BLS, Sept 11), hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (Jackson Hole August 2026: 'readiness for further tightening'), 10-year yield near 5% as a market signal of persistent inflation. The existing Cassandra prediction ('Fed funds rate at least 4.00–4.25% by Dec 31, 2026, at least two further 25bp hikes') explicitly implies this December step as hike #2 after September. Counterpoint: the November FOMC (Nov 4) could alternatively be the timing, with December then holding.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket/defirate.com: FOMC September Hike aggregiert 78–81% (11.09.2026)
- BLS: US Headline CPI August 2026 >3,0% YoY (11.09.2026)
- CNBC: 'Fed Chair Warsh hawkish Jackson Hole speech, signals further tightening' (August 2026)
- Bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersage: Fed-Funds-Rate mindestens 4,00–4,25% am 31.12.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a 79% probability of a Fed hike on September 16 to 3.75–4.00%. Polymarket also sees 88% probability the 10-year yield reaches 5.0% in 2026, implying current levels are already elevated. Post-decision bond selling ('sell the news') should push the 10Y above 4.55% on September 18. Kalshi priced the September hike at 58% as of September 2.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 97% probability WTI reaches 100 USD in 2026. The open Brent prediction (>100 USD on September 19) is consistent: WTI typically trades USD 3–5 below Brent, implying 95–97 USD around September 17. Supportive factors: Iran tensions (IAEA emergency session expected by September 19), OPEC+ production discipline, strong global demand. Downside risk: abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or surprise OPEC+ output increase.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Ethereum is currently trading at ~$2,521 (CoinGecko, September 13, 2026). A gain of ~+19% would be needed by end of October. Price drivers: (1) BTC correlation – an open Cassandra prediction sees BTC above $80,000 on September 19; historical ETH/BTC correlation ~0.80. (2) Macro liquidity – the FOMC rate hike to 3.75–4.00% (September 17, Cassandra open) is largely priced in; risk-on mode often follows. (3) Structural ETH drivers: staking yields, Layer-2 adoption, spot ETH ETF inflows. No Polymarket market for ETH >$3,000 October 2026 available; historical 6-week volatility implies +19% moves in ~42% of periods (2022–2026).